A reduction in the number of GMEP squares to be revisited in the ERAMMP field survey is required to meet budgetary constraints whilst ensuring the survey will

deliver the most robust evidence base which is responsive to such issues as the actual uptake of different Glastir interventions by contract-holders/land-managers and the capture of those within the baseline GMEP survey.

An approach was needed which would maximise outputs matched to policy priorities for assessing national trends, provide evidence for the outcomes of Glastir interventions and optimise where changes were most likely to be detected.

The target is to reduce survey squares from 300 to 240 1km squares

Alison, J.P.

Emmett, B.A.

Henrys, P.

Siriwardena, G.M.

Smart, S.M.

NERC Open Research Archive

            Alison, J.1, Henrys, P.1, Smart, S.M.1, Siriwardena, G.2 & Emmett, B.A.1  1Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2 British Trust for Ornithology        Client Ref: Welsh Government / Contract C210/2016/2017 Version: 1.0 Date 30/09/2019    Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling       Programme                                  ERAMMP Year 1 Report 15:  Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares  Programme/ Project Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP)   Title ERAMMP Year 1 Report 15: Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares  Client Welsh Government  Reference C210/2016/2017 NEC06297 Task 8.3.1  Confidentiality, copyright and reproduction    CEH contact details Bronwen Williams Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW t: 01248 374500 e: erammp@ceh.ac.uk  Corresponding Author Jamie Alison, CEH  How to cite (long) Alison, J., Henrys, P., Smart, S.M., Siriwardena, G. & Emmett, B.A. (2019) Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme – ERAMMP Year 1 Report 15: Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares. Report to Welsh Government (Contract C210/2016/2017). Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Project NEC06297.  How to cite (short) Alison, J. et al. (2019) ERAMMP Report 15: Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares. Report to Welsh Government (Contract C210/2016/2017)(CEH NEC06297)  Approved by James Skates  Signed    This document is also available in Welsh / Mae’r ddogfen yma hefyd ar gael yn Gymraeg   Version History Version Updated By Date Changes 0.1 PMO  30/4/19 Initial draft. 0.11 PMO 8/5/19 Mainly formatting edits – draft for SG 0.12-0.13 PMO 17/9/19 Formatting edits 0.14 PMO 27/9/19 Approved for publication 1.0 PMO 30/9/2019 As published      Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 1 of 11  Contents 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 2 2 GMEP background .............................................................................................. 3 3 Approach ............................................................................................................. 4 4 Earmarking selected squares for survey in 2020/2021 ...................................... 10      Abbreviations and some of the technical terms used in this report are expanded in the project glossary: https://erammp.wales/en/glossary (English) and https://erammp.cymru/geirfa (Welsh) Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 2 of 11 1 Introduction  A reduction in the number of GMEP squares to be revisited in the ERAMMP field survey is required to meet budgetary constraints whilst ensuring the survey will deliver the most robust evidence base which is responsive to such issues as the actual uptake of different Glastir interventions by contract-holders/land-managers and the capture of those within the baseline GMEP survey.  An approach was needed which would maximise outputs matched to policy priorities for assessing national trends, provide evidence for the outcomes of Glastir interventions and optimise where changes were most likely to be detected.  The target is to reduce survey squares from 300 to 240 1km squares.  Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 3 of 11 2 GMEP background The GMEP monitoring sample comprised 300 1km squares across Wales: 150 wider Wales (WW) squares, representing a stratified random sample of Wales across different land classes, as well as a further 150 squares forming the targeted (TG) component. TG squares were mostly targeted based on probability of implementation of Glastir interventions, but in later years squares were targeted based on actual Glastir uptake. While WW squares are more or less representative of Wales as a whole, the TG squares are a biased sample of Wales (although this bias has been well quantified). See the GMEP final report1 for a full description of the field survey approach.                                                                   1 Emmett B.A. and the GMEP team (2017) Glastir Monitoring & Evaluation Programme. Final Report to Welsh Government - Executive Summary (Contract reference: C147/2010/11). NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH Projects: NEC04780/NEC05371/NEC05782). www.gmep.wales  Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 4 of 11 3 Approach Square selection took four main stages, reflecting four key selection criteria established in various meetings about ERAMMP field survey priorities. Note that some of the discussed criteria could not be considered due to time and data restrictions. Key criteria were: 1. Capacity to represent stock and change across Wales (e.g. prioritizing WW squares) 2. Quantity of baseline data 3. Presence of peatland, including lowland peat 4. Presence of Glastir interventions, especially those affecting inputs/stocking on grazed land, but also streamside corridors, hedgerows, cover crops and habitat creation  Only 1km squares which were previously surveyed under the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) were considered.  The aim is that 120 squares surveyed in 2013/2014 will be revisited in 2020, while 120 squares initially surveyed in 2015/2016 will be revisited in 2021. 10 of 60 unselected GMEP squares were also required to be marked as ‘reserves’ in case access is refused to any of the 240 selected squares.  Step 1: Capacity to represent stock and change across Wales The WW squares represent a more or less unbiased sample of Wales, and were given priority for resurvey on that basis. Subject to step 2, this entailed automatic selection of 150 WW squares.  Step 2: Quantity of baseline data In GMEP, squares were only visited if an adequate area of the square was available for environmental survey. The criteria were as follows: Squares containing sea: • The sea coverage must be less than 90% • Of the remaining land available for survey, access permissions must be granted for at least 50% of that area • Access permissions granted must not be less than 10% of the square area Squares with urban land: • Must have less than 75% urban land present • Of the remaining land available for survey, access permissions must be granted for at least 50% of that area • Access permissions granted must not be less than 25% of the square area Squares without urban land or sea present: • Access permissions must be granted for at least 25% of the square area • Squares with 25-50% permission granted may also be rejected, following a case-by-case discussion Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 5 of 11 For ERAMMP, these criteria were slightly relaxed for coastal and urban squares, so as not to lose valuable information on urbanization or coastal habitats:  Under ERAMMP, a square was rejected if permission was granted for <25% of the surveyable area of that square (i.e. excluding sea). This meant that if a square was 50% sea, yet 30% of land had permission granted, that square would not be rejected - despite the fact that only 15% of the total square area was accessible for survey (however, no squares had such a small accessible area as this). One WW square (non-coastal) did not meet this criterion (>75% was refused). An exception was made for this square on the grounds that WW squares are important for stock and change analysis. Moving forward, permissions will be carefully monitored for squares such as this one. Permissions granted are expected to be higher under ERAMMP than under GMEP, due to improved capacity to find and contact landowners (independent contractor liaising with landowners).  Step 3: Presence of peatland Under GMEP a unified peat map was produced, combining peatland data from the British Geological Society, the Forestry Commission and Natural Resources Wales. This includes information on lowland peat, and not just e.g. blanket bog. To continue to effectively monitor peatland soils and vegetation, we selected all squares with >50% overlap with the unified peat map. This added 17 squares to the selection.  Step 4.1: Overlap between Glastir grazing interventions and vegetation/soil samples Steps 4.1 and 4.2 used data on Glastir interventions obtained from Welsh Government in 2017. Throughout selection we only considered Glastir interventions that were in place in 2015 at the latest (the vast majority of which were also in place in 2013-2014). Step 4.1 focussed on a set of high-uptake Glastir interventions that aim to reduce inputs and stocking levels on grazed land. The schemes, codes and descriptions of these interventions are displayed in Table 1. We selected all squares in which soil and vegetation samples had been taken within one of the listed Glastir interventions. This added 56 squares to the selection.   Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 6 of 11 Table 1. Schemes, codes and descriptions of Glastir interventions considered in selection step 4.1. Scheme Code Description Glastir entry 15 grazed pasture – no inputs 15b grazed pasture – low inputs 15c grazed pasture – no inputs & mixed grazing 15d grazed pasture – low inputs & mixed grazing 40 fence around stock excluded woodland Glastir advanced 15 grazed pasture – no inputs 15b grazed pasture – low inputs 15c grazed pasture – no inputs & mixed grazing 15d grazed pasture – low inputs & mixed grazing 411 Additional Management Payment - Reduce stocking 100 Woodland - stock exclusion Glastir advanced - commons 411 Additional Management Payment - Reduce stocking   Step 4.2: Overlap between Glastir interventions and vegetation samples Step 4.2 focussed on the interventions listed in 4.1 as well as some lower-uptake Glastir interventions that it was deemed possible or worthwhile to monitor. Furthermore, we looked for intersections with any vegetation sample under GMEP, and not just vegetation samples in which soil samples were taken. Note that intersections with these interventions were rare, and in many cases nil. The schemes, codes and descriptions of these interventions are displayed in Table 2. We selected squares up to 240 by prioritizing squares with larger numbers of vegetation samples intersecting a broader list of Glastir interventions. This added 17 squares to the selection, and a further 10 squares were marked as reserves based on the same prioritisation.   Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 7 of 11 Table 2. Additional schemes, codes, Wales-wide feature counts and descriptions of Glastir interventions considered in selection step 4.2. Counts are simply the total number of incidences of that option across Wales, including double-counting of interventions which persisted across multiple years. They represent a crude measure of the abundance of interventions across Wales. Grouping Scheme Code Count Description Habitat creation Glastir entry 24 465 woodland edge to develop out to adjoining (improved) fields 23 1992 small areas in corners of field revert to rough grassland/scrub 1 1290 3m wildlife corridor - include trees & shrubs 1b 1267 2m wildlife corridor- tree & shrub planting 26 992 fixed rough grass margins on arable land 2 756 3m wildlife corridor  include earth bank & tree/shrub planting 3 704 wildlife corridor - wooded strip 2b 672 2m wildlife corridor include earth bank & tree/shrub planting Glastir advanced 102 597 Trees and scrub - establishment by natural regeneration 101 523 Trees and scrub - establishment by planting 125 847 Lowland unimproved neutral grassland - reversion (pasture) 121 779 Lowland unimproved acid grassland - reversion (pasture) 126 548 Lowland unimproved neutral grassland - reversion  (hay cutting) 132 307 Conversion from improved grassland to semi- improved grassland (hay cutting) 134 289 Lowland marshy grassland - reversion (pasture) 119 170 Lowland heath habitat expansion - establishment on grassland 403 158 Additional Management Payment - Re-wetting 122 145 Lowland unimproved acid grassland - reversion (hay cutting) Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 8 of 11 Grouping Scheme Code Count Description 131 110 Conversion from arable to grassland (no inputs) 130 24 Lowland unimproved calcareous grassland - reversion  (hay cutting) 145 22 Lowland fen - reversion (pasture) 129 14 Lowland unimproved calcareous grassland - reversion (pasture) 150 12 Saltmarsh - creation 147 10 Reed bed - creation 151 3 Coastal vegetated shingle and sand dunes - creation Glastir woodland creation All 523 All Hedges & streams Glastir entry 5 9635 enhanced hedgerow management - both sides 7b 3507 streamside corridor both sides of watercourse 9b 522 streamside corridor both sides with tree planting Glastir advanced 173 2475 Streamside corridor management 5 1556 enhanced hedgerow management - both sides Cereal cover crops, stubbles & headlands Glastir entry 33 1056 wildlife cover crop on improved land 28 829 retain winter stubbles 31 768 unsprayed spring sown cereals retaining winter stubbles 34b 33 unfertilised & unsprayed cereal headland 34 15 unharvested cereal headland Glastir advanced 31 434 unsprayed spring sown cereals retaining winter stubbles 33 211 wildlife cover crop on improved land 28 90 retain winter stubbles 34b 33 unfertilised & unsprayed cereal headland Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 9 of 11 Grouping Scheme Code Count Description 169 7 Unsprayed spring sown cereals, oil seed rape, linseed or mustard crop for lapwing (nesting) 34 7 unharvested cereal headland    Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 10 of 11 4 Earmarking selected squares for survey in 2020/2021 Of the 240 selected squares, those surveyed in 2013/2014 under GMEP were earmarked for survey in 2020. This only accounted for 113 of 120 that needed to be surveyed in 2020. To make up the remainder, seven squares surveyed in 2015 under GMEP were taken at random. The remaining 120 squares were all earmarked for survey in 2021, having been surveyed in 2015/2016 under GMEP.    Figure 1. Percentage of selected squares (dark grey) and excluded squares (grey) falling into various broad habitat categories based on the allocation of the majority of X plots within that square (squares with ties for dominant habitat come under “No dominant habitat”). Improved and neutral grassland show a slight bias towards being excluded whilst acid grassland and bog show a slight bias towards being selected. However, a Chi-squared test of homogeneity suggests that the distribution of habitats did not differ significantly between selected and excluded squares (P > 0.05).     Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) Year 1 Report 15 Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP Field Survey Squares v1.0 Page 11 of 11      Figure 2. Percentage representation of peatland and Glastir options (listed in Tables 1 & 2) across selected, reserved and excluded squares in Wider Wales (blue) and the targeted component (green, orange and red). Representation of peatland and Glastir was much higher in the 150 targeted component squares than in 150 wider Wales squares. Within the targeted component, we excluded 60 squares (orange and red) but 90 selected squares captured the vast majority of peatland and relevant Glastir interventions (green).                   www.erammp.cymru www.erammp.wales Enquiries to:  ERAMMP Project Office CEH Bangor Environment Centre Wales Deiniol Road Bangor Gwynedd LL57 2UW T: + 44 (0)1248 374528 E: erammp@ceh.ac.uk 

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Year 1 Report 15: Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP field survey squares

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Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Year 1 Report 15: Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP field survey squares

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