Modelling the temporal dynamics of seismic exposure in Santiago, Chile

Abstract

Among the three components of seismic risk—hazard, exposure and vulnerability—exposure is the least studied. This paper presents the preliminary results of a study on the temporal dynamics of seismic exposure in the last 25 years for the city of Santiago, Chile. Exposure models with a census-block resolution are built for two different epochs—1992 and 2017—and compared. Results show that the city has grown both horizontally (i.e., expanding) and vertically (i.e., densifying) in the study period. Also, that reinforced concrete is becoming the preferred building material, going from 3% to 17% of the total buildings in the city. Considering the constant update of seismic design regulations in Chile, the formality of construction, the high compliance to codes, and the constant evolution of building practice in Chile, these results imply that the city is evolving into a seismically safer state. This research is the first step towards a time-dependent seismic risk assessment for the city of Santiago. This tool will be used to further explore how urban planning decisions affect the evolution of risk in time

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