IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR CROP PRODUCTION

Abstract

This study examined the impact climate change have on Nigerian agricultural sector crop production within the period of 1990 to 2020.  This study employed the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model. NARDL is appropriateness because the unit root test results revealed a mixed order of I(0) and I(1) and Wald test which established the existence of non-linearity. This study established the existence of long-run relationship and also found that in the short run, lag of increase in rainfall index has a positive and statistically significant impact on crop output. the past value of decrease in rainfall has a positive and statistically significant impact on crop output. Decrease in temperature has a positive impact on crop production at both the current and lagged value but only the lag is statistically significant. In the long-run both increase and decrease in rainfall as well as increase in temperature indices have negative impact on crop production why reduction in temperature is beneficial to crop production. This study, this study recommends the provision of irrigation facilities such as dam, pumping machines, hose, wells and boreholes to farmers as this will help ameliorate shortages of water caused by climate change

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