Grasslands are one of the most human-modified biomes in the world due to the expansion of croplands and afforestation. In the scenario of productive intensification, it is necessary to generate alternatives to model land-cover changes and their environmental consequences. The objective of this study was to generate land-cover projections and quantify the future impact of these dynamics on the supply of ecosystem services in Uruguay. For that, land-cover maps, Markov-chains models, and an index of the supply of ecosystem services (ESSI) were utilized. Based on the land-cover maps, transitions probabilities between classes for two time periods (2000–2010 and 2010-2019) were calculated, and two Markovian-chain models were performed. With the projected land-cover maps, spatial models were used to relate the proportion of croplands and grasslands with the ESSI. The results indicate a continuous increase of croplands and afforestation for the next decade. Grasslands will remain the most abundant land-cover, reaching 46% in 2037. The highest probability of persistence was, in both periods, for grasslands, while the probability of persistence increased by 60 and 13% for croplands and afforestation, respectively. The ESSI shows a 5% of decrease between 2000-2037. These findings provide important empirical evidence for territorial planning and sustainable management.Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovació
