Sociological Cycles: The accumulated discrepancy between appearance and reality as driver

Abstract

Oscillations are observed in all branches of science and culture, ranging from the behavior of ele-mentary particles, atoms, molecules in simple chemical or physical systems or even in complex organisms, up to oscillations of the behavior of complex organisms such as human beings. Exam-ples of the latter are phenomena as different as waves of public taste, particularly obvious in fash-ion, or periodically repeated surplus or deficiency of qualified jobs in a certain profession. In the focus of the presentation are those cycles that are characterized by periodical sequences of over- and under-estimation (hype cycles). They are not only ubiquitous but also of great impact on and hence of great interest for society. Many of the other oscillation modes, though, can be mapped on this