Comstock, Andrew R.

Andrew Comstock and Oliver Ecker use this presentation at the New Kenya Food Security Simulator: A Practical Demonstration and Announcement of a Blog Competition virtual seminar on July 19, 2023. The Kenya Food Security Simular is an innovative and easy-to-use, MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks on food security and people’s diets

CGSpace

The New Kenya Food Security Simulator A Practical Demonstration andAnnouncement of a Blog Competition19 July 2023 • 15:00 EATVirtual SeminarFood Security Simulator – Kenya Introduction & DemonstrationAndrew Comstock, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRIFSSK Practical DemonstrationNPS Webinar | July 19, 2023Motivation and purpose• Food security in many countries has been impacted by a succession of recent crises.• Especially when a crisis hits unexpectedly, policymakers need to take quick action.• To inform such policy action, KIPPRA, KNBS, and IFPRI under the NPS Initiative jointly developed the Food Security Simulator – Kenya (FSSK).• FSSK is an innovative tool for first-cut evaluations of direct, household-level outcomes of economic crises and policy responses in a timely manner.• FSSK is designed for assessing the potential, short-term impacts of food price or household income changes (“shocks”) on food consumption, diet quality, and other food security indicators among different population groups in Kenya.Features of the Food Security Simulator – Kenya• Is based on rigorous research, incl. sophisticated food demand models to capture consumer behavior, published in:• Income and price elasticities of food demand (E-FooD) dataset: Documentation of estimation methodology (IFPRI Data Paper)• A healthy diet is costly, but even with limited income Kenyans can eat better (IFPRI Policy Brief)• Poverty, price and preference barriers to improving diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Global Food Security journal article)• Uses data from representative household surveys (KIHBS).• Is easy-to-use, with an intuitive Excel-based interface, and has a detailed user guide.• Provides detailed simulation results tables, but also concise overview tables and graphs for key indicator results (for e.g., export to policy reports or presentations).Tool components• Outcome indicators: Prevalence and gap measures Extreme/food poverty and (caloric) undernourishment Consumption of essential food groups and overall diet quality, as measured by IFPRI’s new ReDD (Reference Diet Deprivation) index Breakdowns by income quintile and residential area• Input: User specifies (quintile) income and food price changes by residential area one-off “shocks”• Output: Descriptive stats for direct exporting into e.g., gov. docs Result tables with average and percentage estimates for all indicators and breakdowns with decompositions by income and price effects Graphs of distributions against thresholds for key indicators• Locked datasets: Household-level data, with obs. from a cleaned and stratified, random survey sub-sample (for 1,000 households).Generic simulation function𝑄𝑄ℎ𝑓𝑓1  =  �𝑄𝑄ℎ𝑓𝑓0  ∗ 1 +  𝐸𝐸𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑀𝑀 ∗ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑔𝑔  +  𝑒𝑒𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑝𝑝 ∗ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑘𝑘  +  ∑𝑗𝑗,𝑙𝑙  𝑒𝑒𝑔𝑔𝑗𝑗𝑝𝑝 ∗ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑙𝑙 + 𝑄𝑄ℎ𝑓𝑓0 − �𝑄𝑄ℎ𝑓𝑓0 ,     𝑖𝑖 ≠ 𝑗𝑗 and  𝑘𝑘 ≠ 𝑙𝑙𝑄𝑄1 = predicted food consumption quantity or calorie consumption amount𝑄𝑄0 = observed food consumption quantity or calorie consumption amount�𝑄𝑄0 = latent [estimated] food consumption quantity or calorie consumption amountℎ = household𝑓𝑓 = food item  (≈ 120-200)𝑔𝑔 = household group  (income quintile × residential area)𝑖𝑖, 𝑗𝑗 = food group in the demand system  (= 15)𝑘𝑘, 𝑙𝑙 = food commodity on input sheet  (subgroups of 𝑖𝑖, 𝑗𝑗)Income effectOwn-price effectCross-price effects𝐸𝐸𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑀𝑀 = estimated income elasticity𝑒𝑒𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑝𝑝 = estimated own-price elasticity𝑒𝑒𝑔𝑔𝑗𝑗𝑝𝑝 = estimated cross-price elasticityfrom food demandsystem estimations(by IFPRI)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑔𝑔 = household income change (%)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑘𝑘 = price change for commodity 𝑘𝑘 (%)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑗𝑗 = price change for commodity 𝑙𝑙 (%)“Shocks”, specifiedby userFood Security Simulator – KenyaBlog Writing Competition Dr. Olivier Ecker (IFPRI)FSSK Practical DemonstrationNPS Webinar | July 19, 2023Why, who, and how to participate?• Learn and showcase FSSK’s application to analyze real-world policy scenarios of household income and food price shocks in Kenya.• Select a food-policy-related research question/problem (actual or hypothetical) of your own choice for analysis with FSSK and focus your blog story on this topic.• All participants of the online training are eligible. • The top three blogs will be published on the CGIAR NPS.• The winner will be eligible for a short-term industrial attachment/mentorship at IFPRI’s Kenya office.• Submit your blog story to IFPRI-Kenya@cgiar.org within three weeks.Deadline: 10. August.Procedures• A Review Committee (KIPPRA, UON, IFPRI) will review your blog and select the top three submissions.• The Review Committee will request one round of revision before final decision. Comments need to be addressed, and revised blog needs to be submitted within one week.• Blog writing guidelines: Interesting and easily accessible to a wide audience. Use concise and precise language, conversational tone, and keywords. 600-800 words (max. 1,000 words). One (max. two) concise graph or table. Strong introductory paragraph to hook the reader and concluding paragraph with clear, evidence-based prediction, recommendation, or call to action.Scan to access the tool

The New Kenya Food Security Simulator: A Practical Demonstration and Announcement of a Blog Competition

https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/10568/131286/1/7-19-2023kfss-tutorialandblogcompetition-230719204308-8ecdd380.pdf

The New Kenya Food Security Simulator: A Practical Demonstration and Announcement of a Blog Competition

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

CGSpace