Muntendam-Bos, Annemarie G.

Niemeijer, André

Pluymakers, Anne

Utrecht University Repository

Netherlands Journal ofGeoscienceswww.cambridge.org/njgIntroductionCite this article: Pluymakers A,Muntendam-Bos AG, and Niemeijer A. Inducedseismicity: a global phenomenon with specialrelevance to the Dutch subsurface. NetherlandsJournal of Geosciences, Volume 102, e2. https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2023.2Received: 30 November 2022Revised: 21 December 2022Accepted: 2 January 2023Author for correspondence:Annemarie G. Muntendam-Bos,Email: a.g.muntendam-bos@sodm.nl© The Author(s), 2023. Published by CambridgeUniversity Press. This is an Open Access article,distributed under the terms of the CreativeCommons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), whichpermits unrestricted re-use, distribution andreproduction, provided the original article isproperly cited.Induced seismicity: a global phenomenon withspecial relevance to the Dutch subsurfaceAnne Pluymakers1, Annemarie G. Muntendam-Bos1,2 and André Niemeijer31Department of Geoscience and Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, TheNetherlands; 2Dutch State Supervision of the Mines, Henri Faasdreef 312, 2492 JP, The Hague, The Netherlandsand 3Department of Earth Sciences, HPT Laboratory, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 4, 3584 CB, Utrecht, TheNetherlandsHuman-induced seismicity, in particular associated with oil and gas operations, has beenobserved for almost a century. One of the first documented examples was in the GooseCreek Field in Texas, where subsidence of an area following the contours of the oil field wasaccompanied by surface faulting and small earthquakes (Pratt & Johnson, 1926). The steadygrowth of the usage of the subsurface in the past decades, also in populated areas, combinedwith an extended capability to monitor smaller seismic events than before, has led to anincreased number of reported induced events.As a consequence, human-induced seismicity has gained increased interest worldwide from ascientific, political and societal perspective. It is not always evident whether events are humaninduced or natural, especially when induced seismic events are also releasing tectonic stress. Inthese cases, human activities trigger natural seismic events that would have occurred at a laterdate (Dahm et al., 2013). This is often referred to as ‘triggered seismicity’ (e.g. McGarr et al.,2002; Shapiro et al., 2013; Dahm et al., 2015). Criteria have been developed to distinguishbetween human-induced seismicity and natural seismicity, based on the seismic history ofthe region and on the temporal, spatial and depth relationship between the event and subsurfaceactivities (e.g. Davis & Frohlich, 1993).Subsurface engineering activities associated with induced seismicity include water impound-ment, mining, changes in subsurface fluid and/or gas pressure due to operations related tohydrocarbon extraction, hydraulic fracturing for shale gas exploitation, wastewater injection,hydrocarbon storage operations, CO2 geological sequestration and hydraulic stimulation ofand/or production/injection in geothermal fields. These activities alter the stress field in the shal-low crust, inducing or triggering earthquakes, through the following (combination of) mecha-nisms, depending on the situation (after Grigoli et al., 2017). In the case of fluid injection, thepore pressure increase reduces the effective normal stress through the Terzaghi effective stressprinciple, leading to fault reactivation when the failure criterion is exceeded. This requires arelatively high permeability pathway, such that injected fluidsmigrate into the fault.Whenmass,volume or temperature changes occur due to subsurface operations, these changes alter the shearand/or normal stress acting on a fault, which then may fail. And last, for hydraulic fracturingprocesses, small seismic events can occur when the fluid pressure exceeds the minimum prin-cipal stress, where new tensile fractures are created in previously unfractured rock. An additionalmechanism for fault reactivation is when the fault strength itself is affected by changes in fluidproperties (i.e. mechanical–chemical interactions, see for example Pluymakers et al, 2014;Pluymakers & Niemeijer, 2015).Though human-induced earthquakes are generally smaller in magnitude than natural earth-quakes, they can have large consequences, especially when they occur in densely populatedareas. The Netherlands is one of the most densely populated countries worldwide, with a risingnumber of geothermal plays and several hydrocarbon plays – including the largest onshore gasfield of Europe, the Groningen field. Induced seismicity in the area of the Groningen field has ledto the planned termination of active production in 2023, which is just over 10 years after the2012 magnitude 3.6 Huizinge event.The continued seismicity and planned termination of Groningen gas production have madeinduced seismicity in the Netherlands a hot topic, for all kinds of subsurface engineering activ-ities. This thematic collection of eight papers comes 5 years after the previous special issue whichfocused specifically on Groningen. In this collection, you will find an overview of all recordedoccurrences of induced seismicity in the Netherlands (Muntendam-Bos et al., 2022). Activitiesfor which seismicity has been observed include gas extraction, underground gas storage, geo-thermal heat extraction, salt solution mining and post-mining water ingress, with relatively lowmagnitudes up to 3.6. However, events exceeding magnitude 1.5–2.0 may be felt by the Dutchpublic, due to the soft topsoils in combination with shallow hypocentres (Muntendam-Bos et al.,2022). For public perception as well as political decision making, it is indeed the ground motionmodel that is critical in determining the site response and associated seismic hazard. Kruiveret al. (2022) present a sophisticated Ground Motion Model utilising field-based measurementshttps://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2023.2 Published online by Cambridge University Pressof soil shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles in the soil. Their resultsshow that the regional Vs profiles used in the current groundmotion model capture spatial variability and represent reliableinput for site-response calculations.An important model in probabilistic estimation of seismic haz-ard is the Gutenberg–Richter law, which describes the relativeoccurrence of small to large earthquakes in a statistical population,where the slope is the b-value. A larger b-value indicates a relativescarcity of large events and vice versa. For the Groningen field,Kraaijpoel et al. (2022) performed a statistical analysis on spatio-temporal patterns in the magnitude distribution of induced earth-quakes, testing which reservoir properties can be possible b-valuepredictors. This shows that statistically, the reservoir thickness is astrong predictor for spatial b-value variations in the Groningenfield. However, a direct causal relation is not evident. For thesetypes of analyses and subsequent extraction of parameters, it isimportant to know if events are correlated or not. For this reason,Trampert et al. (2022) reanalysed the Groningen event catalogue,with a specific emphasis on the scale invariance of events. The dis-tributions of seismic moments and interevent times show a scale-invariant power law behaviour over several decades. This scaleinvariance implies that the dominant slopes in seismic momentand inter-event time distributions are related to the time evolutionof the elastic energy loading in the system (Trampert et al., 2022).To estimate future seismic hazard and risk due to subsurfaceactivities, it is important to correctly model the relation betweenthe induced subsurface perturbations and the occurrence of seis-micity. For this, accurate source models are needed – capable ofnot only retrospectively model the existing seismic catalogue butalso to properly predict the development of future seismicity.Kühn et al. (2022) provide a good overview of existing literatureon the most important model approaches for Groningen seismo-genic models, with all their achievements and limitations.Modelling of seismicity after termination of production is a chal-lenge for all seismicity models because delayed processes andmechanisms play a crucial role. For instance, a clear seismicitydecrease followed by the significant production reduction in2014, but larger earthquakes of magnitudes M≥ 3.0 and clustersof events continued to occur (Muntendam-Bos, 2020; Kühnet al., 2022). To fully incorporate the physics of the Groningenfield, not only the seismic processes need to be considered but alsoaseismic processes. Jansen & Meulenbroek (2022) consider slippatch development under initially aseismic conditions usingsemi-analytical modelling techniques. Their findings includeapproximate expressions for the induced seismic moment per unitstrike length and a description of the effect of coupling between slippatches.It is also important to see if lessons learnt from induced seismic-ity in the extremely well studied and monitored Groningen fieldcan be applied to other places in the Netherlands. A relativelynew but rapidly increasing application of subsurface use, not onlyin the Netherlands but also worldwide, is geothermal energy. In theNetherlands, there are currently 28 functioning doublets at 1.5–3 km depth, delivering six petajoules yearly. Current forecastsinclude an increase to 200 petajoules or ~700 doublets by 2050(Stichting Platform Geothermie et al., 2018; Rijksoverheid, 2019).In the Netherlands, there is one recorded incident in the tec-tonically active Roer Valley Graben where induced seismicityhas led to termination of the geothermal operations: Vörös &Baisch (2022) provide a report on the characteristics of the largestM1.7 earthquake, which triggered the red light of the traffic lightsystem used, and compare the findings with the seismic hazardassessment conducted prior to the earthquake. In this case, the geo-mechanical analysis indicates that fault activation was caused bythe thermo-elastic stresses due to the re-injection of cold waterclose to the Tegelen fault. Thermo-elastic stresses are also inferredby Buijze et al. (2023) to be the most prominent difference in seis-mic hazard for geothermal plays. Buijze et al. review the maindifferences and similarities in geological and petrophysical charac-teristics between hydrocarbon and geothermal plays in theNetherlands. They provide insights into and constraints on the fac-tors that could play a role for fault reactivation and induced seis-micity and how these might differ for hydrocarbon production andgeothermal operations (Buijze et al., 2023).It is clear from the papers published in this special issue as wellas many other scientific contributions on induced seismicity overrecent years that the topic continues to be of great scientific inter-est. Not only because of its direct societal relevance and link to theenergy transition but also because induced seismic events occur ingeological systems that are relatively well constrained and typicallyintensely monitored. Research into induced seismicity will surelycontinue with the aim to better define the hazard and set the boun-dary conditions for safe utilisation of the subsurface.ReferencesBuijze, L., Veldkamp, H., & Wassing, B., 2023. Comparison of hydrocarbonand geothermal production in the Netherlands: Reservoir characteristics,pressure and temperature changes, and implications for fault reactivation.Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 102.Dahm, T., et al., 2013. Recommendation for the discrimination of human-related and natural seismicity. Journal of Seismology 17(1): 197–202.Dahm, T., Cesca, S., Hainzl, S., Braun, T. & Krueger, F., 2015. Discriminationbetween induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbonreservoirs: a probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters. Journal ofGeophysical Research: Solid Earth 120(4): 2491–2509. doi: 10.1002/2014JB011778.Davis, S.D. & Frohlich, C., 1993. Did (or will) fluid injection cause earth-quakes?—Criteria for a rational assessment. Seismological Research Letters64(3-4): 207–224.Grigoli, F., Cesca, S., Priolo, E., Pio Rinaldi, A., Clinton, J.F., Stabile, T.A.,Dost, B., Garcia Fernandez, M., Wiemer, S. & Dahm, T., 2017. Currentchallenges in monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seis-micity related to underground industrial activities: a European perspective.Reviews of Geophysics 55(2): 310–340. doi: 10.1002/2016RG000542.Jansen, J. &Meulenbroek, B., 2022. Induced aseismic slip and the onset of seis-micity in displaced faults. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 101: E13. doi:10.1017/njg.2022.9.Kraaijpoel, D., Martins, J., Osinga, S., Vogelaar, B. & Breunese, J., 2022.Statistical analysis of static and dynamic predictors for seismic b-value var-iations in the Groningen gas field. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 101:E18. doi: 10.1017/njg.2022.15.Kruiver, P., Pefkos, M., Rodriguez-Marek, A., Campman, X.,Ooms-Asshoff, K., Chmiel, M., Lavoué, A., Stafford, P. J. & Van Elk, J.,2022. Capturing spatial variability in the regional Ground Motion Modelof Groningen, the Netherlands. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 101:E16. doi: 10.1017/njg.2022.13.Kühn, D., Hainzl, S., Dahm, T., Richter, G. & Vera Rodriguez, I., 2022. Areview of source models to further the understanding of the seismicity ofthe Groningen field. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 101: E11. doi:10.1017/njg.2022.7.McGarr, A., Simpson, D. & Seeber, L., 2002. Case histories of induced and trig-gered seismicity. International Geophysics 81(A): 647–664.Muntendam-Bos, A.G., 2020. Clustering characteristics of gas-extractioninduced seismicity in the Groningen gas field. Geophysical JournalInternational 221(2): 879–892. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggaa038.e22 Anne Pluymakers et al.https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2023.2 Published online by Cambridge University PressMuntendam-Bos, A.G., Hoedeman, G., Polychronopoulou, K., Draganov, D.,Weemstra, C., Van der Zee, W., Bakker, R.R. & Roest, H., 2022. An over-view of induced seismicity in the Netherlands. Netherlands Journal ofGeosciences 101: E1. doi: 10.1017/njg.2021.14.Pluymakers, A.M.H. & Niemeijer, A.R., 2015. Healing and sliding stability ofsimulated anhydrite fault gouge: effects of water, temperature and CO2.Tectonophysics 656: 111–130. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2015.06.012.Pluymakers, A.M.H., Samuelson, J.E., Niemeijer, A.R. & Spiers, C.J., 2014.Effects of temperature and CO2 on the frictional behavior of simulatedanhydrite fault rock. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth119(12): 8728–8747. doi: 10.1002/2014JB011575.Pratt, W.E. & Johnson, D.W., 1926. Local subsidence of the Goose Creek oilfield. Journal of Geology 34: 577–590.Rijksoverheid, 2019. Klimaatakkoord. Available at https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/duurzame-energie/aardwarmteShapiro, S., Krger, O.S. & Dinske, C., 2013. Probability of inducing given-mag-nitude earthquakes by perturbing finite volumes of rocks. Journal ofGeophysical Research: Solid Earth 118(7): 3557–3575. doi: 10.1002/jgrb.50264.Stichting Platform Geothermie, DAGO, Stichting Warmtenetwerk & EBN,2018. Masterplan Aardwarmte in Nederland - Een Brede Basis Voor EenDuurzame Warmtevoorziening. Available at https://www.geothermie.nl/images/Onderzoeken-en-rapporten/20180529-Masterplan-Aardwarmte-in-Nederland.pdfTrampert, J., Benzi, R. & Toschi, F., 2022. Implications of the statistics of seis-micity recorded within the Groningen gas field. Netherlands Journal ofGeosciences 101: E9. doi: 10.1017/njg.2022.8.Vörös, R. &Baisch, S., 2022. Induced seismicity and seismic riskmanagement –a showcase from the Californië geothermal field (the Netherlands).Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 101: E15. doi: 10.1017/njg.2022.12.Netherlands Journal of Geosciences e23https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2023.2 Published online by Cambridge University Press

Induced seismicity: a global phenomenon with special relevance to the Dutch subsurface

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Induced seismicity: a global phenomenon with special relevance to the Dutch subsurface

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