Global Planting Suitability of Wheat Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Warming Goals

Abstract

Global Planting Suitability of Wheat Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Warming Goals Authors: Xi Guo; Puying Zhang; Yaojie Yue This is the outcome data of our research which is under submission. Though the impact of climate change on potential crop distributions has been extensively explored, there are few studies on potential wheat distributions at specific global warming levels (GWLs), e.g., 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Here, a grided (0.5 degree × 0.5 degree) dataset of global potential wheat distribution under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs is proposed. This dataset is produced using the MaxEnt model with support of multi-model data(GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M). The predictive accuracy of the proposed dataset was carefully validated between the predicted global wheat distribution and multiple known datasets. For more details of the approach used to predict the global wheat distribution please refer to: Yue, Y., Zhang, P., Shang, Y., 2019. The potential global distribution and dynamics of wheat under multiple climate change scenarios. Sci Total Environ 688, 1308-1318. https://coi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.153. The results indicate the regional differences in the potential suitability of wheat cultivation under different GWLs. Eastern Europe, Pakistan, Northern India, Russia, and Canada witnessed a significant increase in wheat planting suitability. In contrast, Central Eastern Africa, Southeastern Australia, Southeastern China, Southern Brazil, France, Spain, and Italy demonstrated a significant decrease in wheat suitability. Compared with 1.5 °C GWLs, wheat planting suitability decreases more evidently in 2 °C GWLs in Central and Eastern Africa, Central and Southern India, Southeastern China, Australia, Mexico, Southern Brazil, and Argentina. Simultaneously, regions such as Russia, Pakistan, Canada, and the Great Lakes area of the United States observed further increases in wheat planting suitability. To ensure favorable conditions for the cultivation of wheat, it is crucial to limit the global average temperature increase to less than 2 °C. Our findings demonstrate the influence of different GWLs on potential global wheat distribution, highlighting the regional differences in the potential suitability of wheat cultivation under different GWLs. We argue that the potential global wheat distribution datasets under different GWLs are a valuable complement to currently available products. This potential global wheat distribution is one of the few products to take into account 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs based on multi-modal data. We believe that it can provide more valuable information for policymakers to make decisions for the warming world. The data of the Global Planting Suitability of Wheat Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Warming Goals is stored in a zip package, that is Global Planting Suitability of Wheat.zip. This package consists of 1 folder, i.e., SR1.5&2.0. This subfolder contains GeoTIFF files for the Global Planting Suitability of Wheat Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C Warming Goals. Correspondingly Wheat_SR15.tif and Wheat_SR20.tif. The grid value of each file ranges from 0 to 1, indicating the possibility of wheat planting in each grid, and the higher the value, the higher the possibility that wheat exists. Reference: Yue, Y., Zhang, P., Shang, Y., 2019. The potential global distribution and dynamics of wheat under multiple climate change scenarios. Sci Total Environ 688, 1308-1318. https://coi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.153