Arbuthnott, K

Bone, A

Davies, M

Gasparrini, A

Hajat, S

Heaviside, C

Macintyre, H

Mavrogianni, A

Picetti, R

Symonds, P

Taylor, J

Thompson, R

Vardoulakis, S

Wilkinson, P

English

UCL Discovery

INSTITUTE OF OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE www.iom-world.org  Population vulnerability to heat over time and space – lessons for climate change adaptation Sotiris Vardoulakis1,3, Clare Heaviside2,3, Helen Macintyre2,     Kat Arbuthnott2,3, Shakoor Hajat3, Roberto Picetti3, Jon Taylor4, Phil Symonds4, Anna Mavrogianni4, Ross Thompson2,          Angie Bone2, Antonio Gasparrini3, Paul Wilkinson3, Mike Davies4   1Institute of Occupational Medicine, 2Public Health England 3London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 4UCL What is vulnerability?  • Vulnerability: diminished capacity of an individual or group to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or human-made hazard (IFRC) • Vulnerability: the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards (UNISDR)  • Counteracting vulnerability requires:  • Reducing the impact of the hazard (through mitigation, warning, preparedness)  • Building capacity to cope with hazards • Tackling the root causes (e.g. poverty)  Heat Vulnerability Framework  (Wilhelmi and Hayden 2010) Relative risk of heat related mortality (per 1oC increase above temp threshold) (Vardoulakis et al. 2014) Relative risk is a ratio of the probability (or incidence) of the event occurring in the exposed group versus a non-exposed group.  • 11 studies which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time (time-series analysis);  • 6 studies which compared mortality outcomes between two different heatwaves in one location (episode analysis).  Relative risk of heat related mortality (Arbuthnott et al. 2016) Heat vulnerability over time • 10 of 11 studies that quantified the risk of heat related mortality over time found a decrease in vulnerability    (5 found this decrease to be significant). • Only 2 studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in vulnerability to specific adaptive measures.  • 4 of the 6 papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in excess mortality in later years.  • Results of studies examining temperature related health risks are aggregated to at least city level. • The UHI is likely to alter heat related risk and with increasing urbanisation.  Air temperatures across the West Midlands  (Macintyre et al. 2016) UHI Intensity   Age group         Housing         Deprivation  Sensitive locations – 1  Day Time Night Time Day Time Night Time Day Time Night Time Day Time Night Time Sensitive locations – 2  Conclusions • Climate change, population change, and the urban heat island are likely to alter heat related risk. • There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population vulnerability to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing.  • The UHI intensity, housing types, and population characteristics are not evenly distributed, which may create areas of high risk of health effects from heat.  • Understanding how urban populations have adapted to heat over time, and identifying high risk urban areas, can inform future adaptation measures.  The Heatwave Plan for England Extreme Events – how well planned are we in the UK? 4 References • Arbuthnott K., Hajat S., Heaviside C., Vardoulakis S., 2016. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change. Environmental Health 15(1): 73-93. • Heaviside C., Vardoulakis S., Cai X., 2016. Attribution of mortality to the Urban Heat Island during heatwaves in the West Midlands, UK. Environmental Health 15(1): 49-59. • Macintyre H.L., Heaviside C., Taylor J., Picetti R., Symonds P., Cai X., Vardoulakis S., 2018. Assessing urban population vulnerability and environmental risks across an urban area during heatwaves – Implications for health protection. Science of the Total Environment 610-611, 678-690. • Vardoulakis S., Dear K., Hajat S., Heaviside C., Eggen B., McMichael A.J. 2014. Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat and cold related mortality in the UK and Australia. Environmental Health Perspectives 122, 1285-1292.   Thank you! sotiris.vardoulakis@iom-world.org www.iom-world.org  NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change & Health    Healthy-Polis: International Consortium for Urban Environmental Health & Sustainability  www.healthy-polis.org 

Population vulnerability to heat over space and time – lessons for climate change adaptation

https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10058379/1/IBC_Heat%20Vulnerability_Vardoulakis%20et%20al_4Sept2017_FINAL.pdf

Population vulnerability to heat over space and time – lessons for climate change adaptation

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