Nowadays, railway transportation becomes a popular choice among commuter as
transportation mode to travel from one place to another. Thus, it makes the industry
grows faster especially at urban area. The complexity of rail network required high
level of safety features to prevent any interruption. For that purpose, this thesis will
show a proper procedure on how the prediction model of accident need to be
conducted using regression model. From the root cause analysis, the most contributory
factor to influence the accident can be identified. “Ishikawa diagram” is a popular tool
to identify problem occurring from the root where it begins. Process of identifying
required bundles of accident and incident investigation report at least for 5 years and
this thesis used data starting from 1999 to 2014. It was taken from several sources on
Australian Railways website. Analysis from Ishikawa shows there are ten main factors
involved to influences an accident. Those factors are “train driver mistake”, “other’s
human mistake”, “weather influence”, “track problem”, “train problem”, “signaling
error”, “maintenance error”, “communication error”, “procedure error”, and “others”.
Each factor with positive correlation coefficient value to the type of accident and
incident were taken as parameter. Then, before completing the prediction model
formula, some of hypothesis needs to be tested to know which model among
regression model is suitable and give a better prediction result. Dispersion test is a test
to calculate dispersion value to know either data is under dispersion for value less than
1 (Poisson model is appropriate) or over dispersion for value more than 1 (Negative
binomial is appropriate). Then, Vuong test is applied to measure which model has a
better result between those two models. From the hypothesis, this thesis shows that
Zero-inflated model is the most fitted model to predict accident and incident cases of
collision, derailment and SPAD. In some country, they may have different system of
rail and geography, thus it should have different possibilities to influence accident and
incident. However, this method and procedure are available to use for them to identify
and predict the most influencing factor that contributes to the accident occurrences
