Forecasting the Risk of Armed Conflict on the Basis of Analysis of Military Expenditure

Abstract

Purpose: the purpose of the article is to determine the content and procedure for calculating by the method of forecasting the risks of armed conflict based on the results of military expenditure analysis. Design/Method/Approach: it is the method of forecasting the risks of armed conflict based on the results of military expenditure analysis. Practical implications: it is quite possible to use the proposed method when monitoring the military-political situation. It will allow: - simplify calculation and monitoring procedures; - eliminate the need to collect and process large arrays of input data; - this will provide an opportunity to solve the optimization problem of determining the rational amount of military spending while ensuring the appropriate level of process intensity; - predict the occurrence of armed conflict; - to develop recommendations to the military-political leadership of the state on early response to threats.  Papertype: practical