A mathematical model for understanding and controlling monkeypox transmission dynamics in the United States and its implications for future epidemic management

Abstract

Although the outbreak of human monkeypox (Mpox) caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV) has slowed down around the world, little is known about this epidemic-like disease. To identify and re-examine the underlying pattern of the disease through a modified logistic growth model, Mpox data set of the United States from 10 May 2022 to 31 December 2022 was used in this study. The main focus is on the two non-pharmaceutical interventions (policies for reducing human-to-human, and animal-to-human transmissions) which were applied to understand their significance on the epidemic. The interventions are used as control parameters in the model with a view to analyzing the strengths of such controls in minimizing the infected cases. The model reveals a complying acceptance to the United States data. The findings disclose that preventive measures could play important roles in controlling the deadly spread of the transmission in the year of 2022. During the transmission period, better outcomes could have been possible to achieve in the US if both controls were brought to action simultaneously. Our model reflects that to prevent the outbreak of Mpox and/or any similar diseases from a community in future, the continuous application of the preventive strategies displayed through the model might be an effective tool. Moreover, such strategies could play supporting roles during pre-and/or post-vaccination periods.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure