Harnessing The Collective Wisdom: Fusion Learning Using Decision Sequences From Diverse Sources

Abstract

Learning from the collective wisdom of crowds enhances the transparency of scientific findings by incorporating diverse perspectives into the decision-making process. Synthesizing such collective wisdom is related to the statistical notion of fusion learning from multiple data sources or studies. However, fusing inferences from diverse sources is challenging since cross-source heterogeneity and potential data-sharing complicate statistical inference. Moreover, studies may rely on disparate designs, employ widely different modeling techniques for inferences, and prevailing data privacy norms may forbid sharing even summary statistics across the studies for an overall analysis. In this paper, we propose an Integrative Ranking and Thresholding (IRT) framework for fusion learning in multiple testing. IRT operates under the setting where from each study a triplet is available: the vector of binary accept-reject decisions on the tested hypotheses, the study-specific False Discovery Rate (FDR) level and the hypotheses tested by the study. Under this setting, IRT constructs an aggregated, nonparametric, and discriminatory measure of evidence against each null hypotheses, which facilitates ranking the hypotheses in the order of their likelihood of being rejected. We show that IRT guarantees an overall FDR control under arbitrary dependence between the evidence measures as long as the studies control their respective FDR at the desired levels. Furthermore, IRT synthesizes inferences from diverse studies irrespective of the underlying multiple testing algorithms employed by them. While the proofs of our theoretical statements are elementary, IRT is extremely flexible, and a comprehensive numerical study demonstrates that it is a powerful framework for pooling inferences.Comment: 29 pages and 10 figures. Under review at a journa