Asiimwe, H

Hintjens, Helen

English

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1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 1/11Post-liberalpolitics in EastAfrica: thetickbird andthe rhinoThemed article1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 2/11The tickbirdThe opening quotation hints that democraticpolitics in East Africa, as elsewhere, is aboutthe capacity of the state not only to manageelections, competing parties, andconstitutional rules; it is also about delivering‘magic’: i.e. jobs, livelihoods, infrastructure,services, and social safety nets. East Africanexperiences suggest that political reformsrequire material improvements. For genuinedemocracy, socio-economic ‘magic’ may beessential. In façade democracies, electionsare stage-managed, and media freedomsseverely restricted. Former Tanzanian President Nyerere warnedabout belief in the magical powers of ‘bigmen’. Leaders use various forms of ‘bellypolitics’, sharing resources. But when they failto deliver, this can also mean their downfall.In his Leadership Code, Nyerere proposed:‘Leaders must set a good example to the restof the people in their lives and in all theiractivities’.1 He continues to explain: Our policy is to make haste slowly, but it maybe hard to sell this to the people. Freedom tomany means immediate betterment, as if bymagic. We are not magicians. But unless I canmeet at least some of these aspirations, myHelen Hintjens Assistent Professor at ISSHenry Asiimwe ISS alumnus Graduated in 2013Image top: KenyaElection Posters. Image Courtesy:Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung(Photo: SusanneRaukamp), licensedunder the CreativeCommons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic |FlickrReferences1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 3/11support will wane and my head will roll just assurely as the tickbird follows the rhino.2Presidential tricksIn 2006, all East African countries exceptUganda stuck to their constitutionalprovisions and limited the President to nomore than two terms in office.3 Prospects forgenuine democratic transition lookedreasonable. By 2018, just Kenya and Tanzaniahad stuck to two-term Constitutionalprovisions. Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi hadall seen changes in the Constitution allowingmultiple – and even indefinite – Presidentialterms.4 This situation was worrying, since:‘imposition of presidential term limits…may bethe most important indicator of howentrenched constitutionalism has become…on a continent notorious for…’presidents-for-life’”.5 Already at independence, Amilcar Cabralwarned that new regimes used a ‘bag oftricks’ to stay in power: ‘gerontocracy,nepotism, social inferiority of women, ritesand practices…incompatible with the rationaland national character of the struggle’ forindependence.6 During the 1990s, of 18African Presidents who completed two termsin office, only eight stood down voluntarily.Ten changed the rules and stood again, orappointed loyal proxies.71. Arusha Declaration 5February 1967.2. Julius Nyerere “Islandof Peace.” Timemagazine, 15.12.1961,cited in Mkapa, BenjaminWilliam ‘Leadership forGrowth, Development,and Poverty Reduction:An African Viewpoint andExperience’, Chapter 2,pp. 36-37, World Bankpublication.3. Daniel Venconsky(2007) “Presidential termlimits in Africa”, ConflictTrends, No. 2, 15-21,Table p. 174. UNECA (2013) AfricanGovernance Report III:Elections and theManagement ofDiversity, Oxford-NewYork: Oxford UniversityPress/UNDP.5. E. Gyimah-Boadi(2015) “Africa’s WaningDemocraticCommitment”, Journalof Democracy, Vol. 26(1): 101-113, p. 102.6. Amilcar Cabral cited inGeorges Nzongola-Ntalaja (2006)‘Challenges to statebuilding in Africa’ AfricanIdentities 4 (10): 71-88:72.1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 4/11Today, Presidents Yoweri Museveni ofUganda, Paul Kagame of Rwanda and PierreNkurunziza of Burundi, claim to protect orderagainst chaos and violence. Yet it was violentpolice repression of protesters against aPresidential third term that provoked massiverefugee flight from Burundi in 2014 and 2015.After two of the five-member ElectoralCommission fled and members of theConstitutional Court received death threats,the remaining judges ruled in favour of thePresident standing for election again!8 In the2016 presidential elections in Uganda, afterprotests following the results, oppositionleader Besigye was arrested without charge,and only released once the constitutionally-specified time limit for challenging electionresults had elapsed.9 After 30 years of hisPresidency, ‘Uganda’s constitution wasamended to allow Museveni to remain inoffice for life’.10Democracy’s downs and ups Democracy can be risky. The Rwandangenocide followed close on democraticreforms in the early 1990s, reforms imposed7. Vencovsky“Presidential term limitsin Africa” op. cit.8. “New blow toNkurunziza as topBurundi election officialflees; may be a'catastrophe'”, Mail andGuardian Africa, 30 May2015, [accessed 3 August2015].9. Bariyo, Nicholas (2016)‘Ugandan Police DetainMain Opposition Leader,Raid His Party’sHeadquarters’ The WallStreet Journal 22February 2016.10. Venconsky,“Presidential term limitsin Africa”, op. cit. p. 18.11. Aggrey, Mutambo(2016) ‘Annan urgesAfrica’s ‘life presidents’ toretire to preventrebellion’ Daily Nation,20 April 2016.12. Jambo News Spot,Kenya PresidentialElection Results 2013, byconstituency, showstrong tendency topolarized voting indifferent regions of thecountry.13. Carothers “The Endof the Transition1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 5/11by the West amidst civil war and economicretrenchment. As the late Kofi Annan warned: If a leader doesn't want to leave office, if aleader stays on for too long, and elections areseen as being gamed to suit a leader and hestays term after term after term, the tendencymay be the only way to get him out isthrough a coup or people taking to thestreets...I think Africa has done well; by andlarge the coups have more or less ended,generals are remaining in their barracks, butwe are creating situations which may bringthem back.11Scepticism about political democracy withoutaccompanying economic and social justice isjustified. So are fears of scapegoatingminorities. Electoral violence in Kenyaresulted from rising expectations, andprotests and violence provoked by Kibaki’s‘politricks’ in seeking a third term in office.12Anger and frustrated hopes can be diverted,finding form in the persecution of minorities,like Kenyan Somalis, who today areexperiencing the same scapegoating thatresulted from the colonial ‘divide and rule’policies before independence. When electorates become dispirited, theiranger can be channelled by politicians alongsectarian lines, producing ‘ethnic’ polarizationand even violence. Indeed, early optimismabout democratic transition per se may beevaporating among scholars too, as countriesParadigm” op cit.,quotations pp. 9, 17.14. Video ‘Obamaaddresses the AfricanUnion, 15. However it can benoted that these findingswere in response to an‘Expert Opinion Survey’,and it cannot beassumed that all expertsare equally free torespond in a criticalmanner to suchquestions about theirgovernment. Data fromUNECA, AfricanGovernance Report III…,op. cit., pp. 62, 67.16. UNECA, AfricanGovernance Report, op.cit., p. 69.17. Nalubega, Leilah andSseunjogi Eriasa (2016)‘Museveni sworn-in asUS, EU envoys walk out’,Monitor 13 March,18. Niccolo Machiavelli(1950) The Prince andthe Discourses, TheModern Library: NewYork: p. 540.19. Makoye, Kizito andBelinda Goldsmith,‘Tanzania: PoliticiansWarned Off WitchcraftAhead of Election’,1 June1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 6/11like Rwanda, Uganda or Burundi start to looklike ‘no transition’ situations. As Carrotherssuggests, these countries: ‘…are neitherdictatorial nor clearly headed towarddemocracy.  They have entered a political gray zone…[Perhaps] It is time for the democracy-promotion community to discard thetransition paradigm’.13 As Barack Obamawarned African leaders when talking to theAfrican Union: ‘When journalists are putbehind bars and activists are threatened asgovernments crack down on civil society,then you may have democracy in name butnot in substance’.14 Source:https://freedomhouse.org/blog/democratic-governance-africa-three-key-trendsYet even in undemocratic states, there issome good news! Rwanda’s postgenocidepolicy of non-ethnic political identificationleads it to be ranked second in Africa toSeychelles in the percentage of those2015, [accessed 15September 2015].20. Makoye andGoldsmith, op. cit.21. Juluis Nyerere (1998)‘Good Governance forAfrica’, 13 Octoberspeech at aconference,  [accessed15 September 2015].22. Dulani, Boniface(2011) “DemocracyMovements as Bulwarksagainst PresidentialUsurpation of Power:Lessons from the ThirdTerm Bids in Malawi,Namibia, Uganda andZambia”, WienerZeitschrift für kritischeAfrikastudien . 20 (11):115-139, at: [accessed 4August 2015], p. 118.23. Nzongola-Ntalaja,Georges (2006)‘Challenges to statebuilding in Africa’, AfricanIdentities 4 (1): 71-88: 82,85.24. Martin-Baro, Ignacio‘Political Violence andWar as Causes ofPsychological Trauma inEl Salvador’, InternationalJournal of Mental Health,Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 3-20,p. 3.1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 7/11surveyed who agreed that: ‘The Constitutionprotects diversity and minority interests’ andthat the ‘government and leadershiprepresents all segments and diverseinterests’.15 Another bright spot in East Africa,irrespective of the degree of democracy, isprogress in gender representation in politics.Whereas in Kenya women generally make upjust 10-20 per cent of Parliamentarians, inrelatively undemocratic Rwanda, Burundi andUganda, and in slightly more democraticTanzania, there are quotas for women.Globally, these countries are: ‘In the lead…with reserved quotas’.16In 2008, 56 per cent of Rwanda’s electedparliamentarians were women, comparedwith 36 per cent in Tanzania and 35 per centin Uganda. These figures compare well with2017 figures for the UK (32 per cent),Netherlands (34.5 per cent) and of course theUS Congress (19 per cent). … so long as those inoffice only feather theirnests and do not attendto the general good, theirrule will be precarious.And the West must take some responsibilityfor failures. During his May 2016 Presidentialswearing-in ceremony, Museveni criticizedWestern meddling in Uganda’s internal1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 8/11economy and finances. He went on to praiseChina and Russia as friendly countries, willingto trade, even in weapons, withoutinterference. At this point, EU and USdelegations walked out of the ceremony.Perhaps they should have stayed, and listenedfor a change. Yet East African politiciansundermine their own credibility when theythemselves mismanage aid or fail to paypublic sector salaries, for example.17 Dangerous magicSo Nyerere was right; politicians are notmagicians. The ideals and promises theymake before elections can turn into a rawambition to stay in power afterwards.Questions of legitimate rule have flummoxedgreat thinkers for centuries. For Machiavelli,‘such evils as affect the state itself…unlessthey are checked and corrected by some wisehand…will cause the ruin of the state’.18Today in East Africa, perhaps the main evilsaffecting the state are rising mass poverty andpoliticians who over-stay in office. Inconnection with Nyerere’s tickbird metaphor,so long as those in office only feather theirnests and do not attend to the general good,their rule will be precarious. …anger can bechannelled bypoliticians alongsectarian lines…1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 9/11When the stakes are high, politicians evenresort to literal magic. Tanzania’s DeputyHome Affairs Minister Pereira Silima, warnedin June 2015: ‘Tanzanian politicians...[should]steer clear of witchcraft ahead of elections…after the nation's parliament heard lawmakerscould be involved in a wave of attacks onalbinos whose body parts are prized in blackmagic’.19 One report called this: ‘…the firstadmission of its kind in parliament…[the]minister said reports linking politicians toalbino killings could be true since attacks roseduring elections’.20 In 2014, the Tanzaniangovernment had imposed a ban on witchcraftto control Albino killings across the country.Literal magic here has meant death and injuryof victims, and the undermining ofdemocracy. This is certainly not the magicNyerere was referring to! So the message is clear: if Presidents amendconstitutions to gain ‘indefinite leave’ toremain in power, they must also provide whatpeople need, or face the consequences.Otherwise civil society will demanddemocratic change.21 Right now: ‘…recentstruggles for the removal of term limits havethus necessitated the interventions ofdemocracy movements to act as bulwarksagainst the usurpation and personalization ofpower by presidents… with mixed results’.22Structural socio-economic transformationsare required for more democratic politics infuture. In Nzongola-Ntalaja’s view: 1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 10/11Democratization is a continuous process ofexpanding the political space to enhanceparticipation by all, including hithertoexcluded groups and strata of thepopulation…for the poor and vulnerablegroups, democracy is meaningless withouteconomic and social rights.23 As China, rather than the US or Europe,becomes the main economic partner ofchoice for East African rulers, regimes in theregion may no longer play by theconstitutional rule book. We end as webegan, with Nyerere, who: …warned his fellow leaders that themwananchi (citizens) would not wait for longbefore seeking such miracle cures... Thedemocratic character of a government doesnot depend [only]… on the way in which it iselected, but rather on the forces thatdetermine its day-to-day conduct.24 Share  Check our website for latest news, upcoming events, recent PhDdefences, and the ISS library for working papers, PhD theses and thejournal Development and Change.1/23/2019 Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino | Digitale Magazineshttp://www.devissues.nl/post-liberal-politics-in-east-africa-the-tickbird-and-the-rhino 11/11        DevISSues is published by the International Institute of Social Studies.

Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino

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Post-liberal politics in East Africa: the tickbird and the rhino

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