Fischer, Andrew

English

The early results of the 2020 Census of the People’s Republic of China shed light on the highly politicised issue of Han Chinese population shares in the Tibetan areas of western China. Andrew M. Fischer highlights two contrasting patterns. Han shares increased in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) but from a small base, reaching 12 percent in 2020. However, they fell in the other Tibetan areas

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11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 1/10MOBILITY, MIGRATION AND FOREIGNERSHan Chinese population shares in Tibet: earlyinsights from the 2020 census of ChinaSeptember 20, 2021Andrew M. FischerASIA, CHINA, MOBILITY, POPULATION, TIBETThe early results of the 2020 Census of the People’s Republic ofChina shed light on the highly politicised issue of Han Chinesepopulation shares in the Tibetan areas of western China.Andrew M. Fischer highlights two contrasting patterns. Hanshares increased in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) butfrom a small base, reaching 12 percent in 2020. However, theyfell in the other Tibetan areas.   MenuAbout N-IUSSP FeaturedWrite for us Newsletter Contacts MENU11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 2/10As snippets of the 2020 Census of China are slowly beingreleased, we can already gain valuable insightsinto the population dynamics of the minorityregions in Western China. It is worthhighlighting these insights now, given that therelease of the detailed census will probably take muchmore time (the 2010 census was not released for over twoyears), and because Chinese migration to Tibetan areas hasresurfaced as an object of international concern andscrutiny.The officially recognised and indigenous Tibetan areas inChina cover a region about the size of Western Europe.About half of these areas and half the Tibetan populationare in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), which is entirelycomposed of Tibetan areas and often referred to simply as‘Tibet’. The other half of the population lives in Tibetan‘autonomous areas’ spanning four other western provinces:Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan.The initial census data on all these areas were compiledfrom provincial and prefecture level statisticalcommuniqués, some of which are online, and others onlyreported in local newspapers (such as with the Qinghaicommuniqués).The level of detail varies across the communiqués. Many –especially at prefectural level – do not divulge ethnicdecompositions. Those that do only present a binary of Hanand minority, not differentiating between various minoritygroups (such as Tibetans and Hui Muslims), except for theTAR communiqué, which specifies Tibetans. Nonetheless,parsing through the data can reveal several importanttrends that confirm previous demographic studies (e.g.,Fischer 2008, 2014; Childs 2008; Ma 2011). Regional distinctionsInterestingly, trends are opposite across the two halves ofTibet, particularly between the TAR and Qinghai, theprovince with the next highest Tibetan population shareand the second most subsidised province in China after theTAR. Moreover, the difference has intensified since the111/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 3/102000s (Figure 1). The Han Chinese population share hasincreased sharply in the TAR, encouraged by massivesubsidies from the central government that exceeded 100percent of the TAR GDP from 2010 onwards (Fischer 2015).The increase has also accelerated with respect to the2000s, but from a small base, and the Han remain a smallminority.Outside of the TAR, Han Chinese shares have fallen (orremained stable in Yunnan). The fall is sharpest in Qinghai,where it is also faster than in the 2000s. If these trendscontinue, minorities in Qinghai will become the majoritywithin a few years.Table 1 shows the differences in population dynamics thatunderlie these trends. The TAR population grew by almosttwo percent a year during the 2010s, through acombination of relatively high natural growth rates (NGR)and net in-migration.11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 4/10In contrast, in the provinces with Tibetan areas outside ofthe TAR, populations either stagnated or declined due tonet out-migration (difference between total and naturalrates of change). The stagnation or decline was mostlyattributed to Han Chinese, due to strong out-migrationcombined with low NGRs. Conversely, NGRs amongminorities were higher than the average provincial rates inall areas besides Yunnan, thereby compensating for theHan.SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTERPeripheral structural tendenciesThese data reflect a general tendency facing relatively poorperipheral areas, that of net population outmigration tomore central locations. This is all the more problematic inthe heavily subsidised context of the TAR. Moreover, suchemigration is more prominent among non-indigenous HanChinese, who are more urban, educated, and mobile inthese western regions, and more culturally connected toother parts of China, whereas local Tibetans (and otherminorities) are less mobile and have higher NGRs (Iredaleet al 2003; Fischer 2008, 2014; and Ma 2011).11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 5/10This tendency is best exemplified by Gansu, currently thepoorest province in China, where the population declinedover the decade despite a positive NGR. Similarly, eventhough Qinghai and Yunnan grew, their annualised growthrates were also significantly lower than their NGRs. OnlySichuan managed to register slightly higher annual totalgrowth rates than natural growth rates.Obviously, these provincial aggregates do not capture thedynamics in sub-provincial Tibetan areas outside the TAR.However, there are strong indirect indications that generaltendencies are similar, or even more pronounced in theseareas. Examples are given in Table 2, focusing on several ofthe larger Tibetan autonomous prefectures outside of theTAR.The strongest population growth was in the two remotestprefectures in Qinghai, namely Guoluo and Yushu, both ofwhich are almost entirely Tibetan and do not border anynon-Tibetan areas. Using the proportion of the populationaged 0-14 years old as a rough proxy for NGR data (whichare not available for these prefectures), it is clear that theirgrowth rates have been driven by relatively high NGRsamong local Tibetans, whose age structure is the youngestin China. The less remote prefectures that border Hanareas, and that have lower minority shares and olderpopulation structures – Gannan, Aba and Ganzi – exhibit2 11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 6/10low or negative population growth, closer to theirrespective provincial trends.The TAR exception and developmentimplicationsThe TAR is the exception to the rule. Yet even despitedoubling over two decades, its low Han share in 2020 willstill probably be greeted with incredulity by those whoclaim the government has been swamping the localpopulation with Han in-migrants. This may partly owe tothe fact that journalists and other observers mostly visitthese areas in the summer, when the Han Chinesepopulation swells from tourism, which may bias the pictureof who the local residents really are.Moreover, we know from previous censuses that the Hanare disproportionately concentrated in the urbanised coreof Lhasa and to a lesser extent in other major towns, andthat very few reside in rural areas (Fischer 2008; Ma andLhundup 2008; Yeh and Henderson 2008; Ma 2011). Andthat is precisely why their presence is so sensitive – notbecause of their population share, but because theydominate economic opportunities in these urban centres,where they are also most visible. They also have strongcompetitive advantages over locals, given the Chineselinguistic biases in the state-dominated urban economies.Hence, the key issue around Han in-migration to theseTibetan areas is the strong competitive pressures that itbrings at a key moment of socio-economic transition forlocals. These pressures may arguably persist even whenChinese population shares are declining if urbanemployment opportunities do not keep up with the needsof the rapidly urbanising local population. These subtletiesneed to be assessed to have a better understanding of thegrievances that in-migration might exacerbate in suchcontexts.ReferencesChilds, Geoff (2008). Tibetan Transitions: Historical andContemporary Perspectives on Fertility, Family Planning11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 7/10and Demographic Change. Leiden: Brill.Fischer, A. M. (2008). ‘“Population Invasion” versus UrbanExclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China.’ Populationand Development Review 34 (4): 631-662.Fischer, A. M. (2014). The Disempowered Development ofTibet in China: a study in the economics of marginalisation.Lanham, MD: Lexington, pp. 83-126.Fischer, A. M. (2015). ‘Subsidising Tibet: an interprovincialcomparison of western China up to the end of the Hu-Wenadministration.’ China Quarterly 221 (March 2015): 73-99.Fischer, A. M. (2021). ‘Chinese Population Shares in TibetRevisited: Early insights from the 2020 census of China andsome cautionary notes on current population politics.’ ISSWorking Paper No. 684, July 2021.Iredale, Robyn, Naran Bilik, and Fei Guo (2003). China’sMinorities on the Move: Selected Case Studies. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.Ma, Rong (2011). Population and Society in ContemporaryTibet. Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press.Ma, Rong, and Tanzen Lhundup (2008). ‘TemporaryMigrants in Lhasa in 2005.’ Journal of the InternationalAssociation of Tibet Studies 4: 1-42.Yeh, Emily T., and Mark Henderson. 2008. ‘InterpretingTibet’s Urbanization: Administrative Scales and Discoursesof Modernization.’ Journal of the International Association ofTibetan Studies 4: 1-44. See Fischer (2021) for a detailed list. These communiquéswere collected and sent to me by a local researcher, whoprefers to remain anonymous.In 2018 Gansu had a per capita GDP of 31,336 yuan, lessthan half the national average of 64,644 yuan (4,490 USD2211/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 8/10and 9,260 USD, respectively, converted at the averagenominal exchange rate for 2018 of 6.98 yuan/USD).Share this postSubscribe to our newsletterName*Email Address*SUBSCRIBERelated postMinorcontributionof migrationInternationalmigrants inSweden,Italians andforeigners:how distantThe role ofnon-resident11/12/21, 12:12 PM Han Chinese population shares in Tibet: early insights from the 2020 census of China - N-IUSSPhttps://www.niussp.org/migration-and-foreigners/han-chinese-population-shares-in-tibet-early-insights-from-the-2020-census-of-china/?_se=bWl… 9/10tourbanizationin low- andmiddle-incomecountriesSeptember 27,2021Ashira Menashe-Oren, PhilippeBocquierover-coverage,andmortalityJune 7, 2021Matthew Wallace,Ben Wilsonare they,culturallyspeaking?May 24, 2021Gustavo DeSantis, MauroMaltagliati,AlessandraPetruccifamily inmigrationafterseparationApril 26, 2021Amy Spring,Clara H. 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Han Chinese population shares in Tibet:early insights from the 2020 census of China

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Han Chinese population shares in Tibet:early insights from the 2020 census of China

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