The economic impact of tourist activity and hotel industry in the economy of Puerto Rico: an analysis in input-output framework

Abstract

Este trabajo tiene como propósito principal el estimar el impacto de la actividad turística en la economía de Puerto Rico. Para estos propósitos se usa un modelo de Insumo-Producto basado en las matrices oficiales del 1967 hasta la última matriz estimada por la Junta de Planificación de Puerto Rico para el 2002. Además se usa una versión actualizada por el autor para el año 2007. Se estimaron los impactos intersectoriales del vector de actividad turística sobre la producción, empleo e ingresos salariales. Se usaron dos modelos, el modelo abierto y el modelo cerrado, de Leontief. Además se llevó a cabo un análisis de los indicadores principales de la actividad turística y la industria de hoteles.ABSTRACT: This paper aims to analyze the impact of tourism on the economy of Puerto Rico using an input-output model based on six input-output matrices estimated by Puerto Rico Planning board from fiscal years 1967 to 2002 and one version for year 2007 updated by the author using RAS method. The first part of the paper offers a description of tourist activity and hotels industry in terms of economic indicators from early eighties to year 2010. The second part is devoted to a comparative analysis of the inter-industry impacts of tourist activity in terms of production, direct and indirect employment and income. A Leontief closed input output-output model was used to estimate the additional induced impact. One of the main results derived from the analysis is the reduction in production, employment and income generated by tourist activity and hotel industry during the last part of the period analyzed, especially from 2002 to 2007, in great part due to the actual economic recession that began in 2006