Presentación realizada para el: 3rd ACCORD ASW celebrado del 27 al 31 de marzo de 2023 en Tallin, Estonia

Geijo, Carlos

English

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

Exploring UA-DA at Sub-Hourly Cycling Frequencywith the HARMONIE-AROME SystemCarlos Geijo Guerrero,  Spanish Met. Agency  (AEMET)3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnECMWF Early Delivery System & Co - DA3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnWhy ? Motivation for sub-hourly DA  In hazardous rapidly developing weathersituations which demand close tracking and monitoring In the context of VHR forecasting : smaller scales usually imply higher instability growing rates3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnHow ? Two main options can be exploredSBH DA implemented under configuration 131 (variational analysis) Domain is IBERIAxxm_2.5 (2.5Km 800x648 L65) Heavy rain episode, in the area of Málaga weather radar, during the evening of 23th and early Morning 24th of March 2022 Default B matrix for this domain in Cy43 (stab_structure_1_2012013118_248) Synthetic DOW observations. 4 scans with 120 km range,Elevations: 1.8, 1.6, 1.4, 1.2; one volumen every 10 minutes Pseudo wind observations extracted by FA (Field-Alignment)SBH DA implemented under configuration 1 (nudging) Issue not tackled in this work, but certainly of interest3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnTruth Null Exp (ref) Experiment Set-UpIt is a “twin experiment”3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, Tallinn1 Hour Acc. Rain3 Hour Acc. Rain3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnExperiment Results (1)1 Hour Acc. Rain 3 Hour Acc. Rain3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnExperiment Results (2)Equitable Threat Score for Acc. Rain (30min., 1H, 2H, 3H) Histograms for Max Acc. Rain (30min, 1H, 2H, 3H)3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnExperiment Results (3 and …)Mean Wind Error Vertical Profiles (30min., 1H, 2H, 3H) Fcst Mean Specific Humidity Error3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnExperiment Results (4)MAX Wind Error Vertical Profiles (30min., 1H, 2H, 3H) Fcst MAX Specific Humidity Error3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnImpact from VC     2 2 2 2 2 2 21 2 3 402 ( )oJ x w x d M x w x d C C C C              Formulation of Balances for ALADIN-NH dynamics3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, Tallinn                 , ,2 21 22 2234, , , ; , , , , , ,1 11 ; ;1 1 ;;;ST Ts o b o b o b s o s b gw D Tbpbvss ssx gw D T d gw gw D D T T d d d dRKcgw tC gw L gw gwRTC K gw K D D D tR TC T D gw Tc TC N D                                                          ; ;ocwM M x w x w d ww     which turns out to be another elliptical boundary value problem ( of 4 th order ) on Δgw     0 ( ) 0 0gw gw gw gw        Formulation of Balances for ALADIN-NH dynamicsWhen J is made stationary the following system of equations is obtained        22 220 0 0 1 01 1 0 00 11 00 0 1 00 0 10 0 0 1vvv vRL L KcK KRK NM MR R cc cN                               3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, Tallinn3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnImpact from VC3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, Tallinn3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnImpact from VC, autocorrelation functions over the radar area for PD and VD. L60 (left), L30 (right)3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnBalances and Initialization The horizontal B structure functions employedin this work and Obs increments from radar data, display short horizontal correlation lengthscales (upper plot)The analyses show distinctive large horizontal correlation length scales. When VC is applied, even larger (double Low Pass).The situation does not change when thebalances implemented in B are switched offConclusion: Vertical B correlation structure functionssmooth a lot the horizontal increments These distinctive scale features in theanalyses do not survive a long time in theforecasts3rd ACCORD ASW, 27-31 March 2023, TallinnWhat has been achieved / learned from these experiments ? Sub-hourly technical implementation done for configuration 131 These first sub-hourly tests show that there is no advantage over 1H cycling VC impact small. It improves sub-hourly results but still below the 1H cycling marks As central object in 3D-Var, the estimation of B should be examined closer Weak link between analysis and dynamics

Exploring UA-DA at Sub-Hourly Cycling Frequency with the HARMONIE-AROME System

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/14464/2/exploringsubhourda.pdf

Exploring UA-DA at Sub-Hourly Cycling Frequency with the HARMONIE-AROME System

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Agencia Estatal de Meteorología