Just-in-time supply chains have become increasingly popular in past decades. However, these are particularly vulnerable when logistic routes are blocked, manufacturing capacities are limited or customs are under strain, as has been seen in the last few years. The principle of just-in-time delivery requires a coordinated production and material flow along the entire supply chain. Challenges in the supply chain can lead to various disruptions, so that certain manufacturing jobs must be changed, postponed or cancelled, which will then impact supply down the line up to the consumer. Nowadays, many planning and control processes in the event of a disturbance are based on the procedural knowledge of employees and undertaken manually by those. The procedures to mitigate the negative effects of disturbances are often quite complex and time-critical, making disturbance management highly challenging.
In this paper, we introduce a real-world use case where we automate the currently manual reschedule of a production plan containing unavailable jobs. First, we analyse existing literature regarding the classification of disturbances encountered in similar use cases. We show how we automate existing manual disturbance management and argue that employing stochastic optimization allows us to not only promote future jobs but to on-the-fly create entirely new plans that are optimized regarding throughput, energy consumption, material waste and operator productivity. Building on this routine, we propose to create a Bayesian estimator to determine the probabilities of delivery times whose predictions we can then reintegrate into our optimizer to create less fragile schedules. Overall, the goals of this approach are to increase robustness in production planning and control
