A Bayesian spatio-temporal study of meteorological factors affecting the spread of COVID-19

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 has brought challenges to health, social and economic systems around the world. With little to no prior immunity in the global population transmission has been driven primarily by human interaction. However, as with common respiratory illnesses such as the flu it's suggested that COVID-19 may become seasonal as immunity grows. Yet the effects of meteorological conditions on the spread of COVID-19 are poorly understood with previous studies producing contrasting results, due at least in part to limited and inconsistent study designs. This study investigates the effect of meteorological conditions on COVID-19 infections in England using a spatio-temporal model applied to case counts during the initial England lockdown. By modelling spatial and temporal effects to account for the nature of a human transmissible virus the model isolates meteorological effects. Inference based on 95% highest posterior density intervals shows humidity is negatively associated with COVID-19 spread. The lack of evidence for other weather factors affecting COVID-19 transmission shows care should be taken with respect to seasonality when designing COVID-19 policies and public communications.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures (inclusive of references and appendix