NPS NRP Technical ReportThis research will examine Naval logistics support requirements during peacetime and conflict in the South China Sea through wargaming and analysis studies. NPS student team designed wargames from the Wargaming Applications course and mini-studies from the Joint Campaign Analysis (JCA) course will be utilized to inform and underpin this program of research.N4 - Fleet Readiness & LogisticsThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Appleget, Jeffrey A.

Burks, Robert E.

Jones, Marianna J.

Kline, Jeffrey E.

English

NPS NRP Technical ReportThis research will examine Naval logistics support requirements during peacetime and conflict in the South China Sea through wargaming and analysis studies. NPS student team designed wargames from the Wargaming Applications course and mini-studies from the Joint Campaign Analysis (JCA) course will be utilized to inform and underpin this program of research.Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)N4 - Fleet Readiness & Logistic

Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School

Calhoun: The NPS Institutional ArchiveDSpace RepositoryFaculty and Researchers Faculty and Researchers' Publications2022Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in aContested EnvironmentAppleget, Jeffrey A.; Burks, Robert E.; Kline, Jeffrey E.;Jones, Marianna J.Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolhttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/71861This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, UnitedStates Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in theUnited States.Downloaded from NPS Archive: CalhounNPS NRP Executive Summary Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment Period of Performance: 10/23/2021 – 10/22/2022 Report Date: 10/22/2022 | Project Number: NPS-22-N140-A Naval Postgraduate School, Operations Research (OR) This research is supported by funding from the  Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098).  Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.     MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA WARFARE ANALYSIS OF LOGISTICS AGILITY IN A CONTESTED ENVIRONMENT  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   Principal Investigator (PI):  Dr. Jeff Appleget, Operations Research (OR)  Additional Researcher(s):  Professor Jeff Kline, OR; Dr. Robert Burks, Defense Analysis (DA)  Student Participation:  MAJ Mark Adams USA, OR; LCDR Timothy Palik USN, OR; ENS Braedon Mead USN, OR; LTJG Edrie Orpilla USN, OR; LCDR Matt Stymfal USN, OR; LCDR Eddie Castellanos USN, OR; MAJ Trevor Klemin USA, OR; Maj Steve Warner USMC, OR; LT Violeta Lopez USN, OR   Prepared for:  Topic Sponsor Lead Organization:  N4 - Material Readiness & Logistics Topic Sponsor Name(s): VADM Ricky Williamson, N4; Mr. Steven Black, N4/N4I Topic Sponsor Contact Information: stephen.p.black@navy.mil, 703-695-5083    NPS NRP Executive Summary Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment Period of Performance: 10/23/2021 – 10/22/2022 Report Date: 10/22/2022 | Project Number: NPS-22-N140-A Naval Postgraduate School, Operations Research (OR)    Page 2 of 5   Project Summary This project conducted two distinct studies. The first (fall) study examined how maritime forces can best address casualty and medical evacuations during conflict in a contested environment set in a Western Pacific scenario. It investigated these key issues:  • What is the best mix/breakdown of supporting transport? • How does the casualty evacuation infrastructure handle mass casualties? • Where are the best locations for Role II medical treatment facility (MTF) placement? • Which Role III MTFs are most utilized in the Pacific? • How does seasonal climate impact such operations?  The second (spring) study examined the warfighting effectiveness of the expeditionary strike group (ESG) based on the mission capability of its ships as enabled by forward-deployed maintenance and repair assets. It investigated the change in status of warships from Non–Mission Capable (NMC) to Partial–Mission Capable (PMC) in these three Western Pacific vignettes:  • What is the threshold at which an NMC ship within an ESG becomes PMC in a permissive environment in a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) scenario? • What is the threshold at which an NMC ship within an ESG becomes PMC in a permissive environment during patrol of an area with increasing near-peer tensions? • What is the threshold at which an NMC ship within an ESG becomes PMC in a non-permissive contested near-peer conflict?  The insights in response to the two wargames were carefully analyzed from wargaming output and were compiled, briefed, and reported to the sponsor. Because of the sensitivity of these results, they are controlled unclassified information (CUI). The insights from the fall wargame were provided to the sponsor via the CUI Wargaming Executive Summary submitted to the sponsor in December 2021. The insights from the spring wargame were provided to the sponsor via the CUI Wargaming Executive Summary submitted to the sponsor in June 2022.  Keywords: casualty evacuation, medical evacuation, Non–Mission Capable, Partial–Mission Capable  Background  The fall study examined the Navy’s casualty and medical evacuation capabilities in the following scenario:  The year is 2025, and conflict is imminent in the Northwest Pacific. The US Navy’s 7th Fleet has deployed two surface action groups and two carrier strike groups to the area to accompany three Marine Expeditionary Advanced Bases. These units are the United States’ and allies’ first line of defense against aggression. In the event of armed conflict, casualties will be evacuated from these seven units to one of three allied hospitals, or the US Navy hospital ship.  The wargame was designed for a single team of one to three players. This team represents a United States Navy or United States Marine Corps Operational/Strategic Level Commander. The Commander is responsible for the execution of medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) transport. This game focuses on the transport of each type of casualty from the point of injury to Role III care. This system wargame has an open information format except for predictive weather that is given to the NPS NRP Executive Summary Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment Period of Performance: 10/23/2021 – 10/22/2022 Report Date: 10/22/2022 | Project Number: NPS-22-N140-A Naval Postgraduate School, Operations Research (OR)    Page 3 of 5   players following their random weather draw and executed by the white cell. The wargame examined three different configurations of MEDEVAC assets:  • Configuration 1 (Hybrid) consisted of 4 expeditionary fast transports (EPFs), 4 concrete piers, 6 US-2 medical, and 6 US-2 transports. • Configuration 2 (EPF) consisted of 20 EPFs. • Configuration 3 (US-2) consisted of 10 US-2 medical and 10 US-2 transports.  Wargame design: The game is played in a sequence of turns, where each turn represents a 6-hour period. At the start of the game, the player draws a weather card that sets the weather season for the game. Players complete the following actions each turn:   • Determine the Red Attack • Determine the location and number of Blue Casualties • Respond to casualties and reposition forces  Data was collected for each turn by dedicated data collectors.  The spring study’s purpose was to determine the warfighting effectiveness of the ESG based on the mission capability of its ships as enabled by forward-deployed maintenance and repair assets. It investigated the change in status of warships from NMC to PMC in these three Western Pacific scenarios:  • The U.S.S. America ESG is tasked to immediately get underway from Brisbane to conduct a HADR mission in Tonga. A typhoon has struck Tonga, leaving the island in shambles.  • With tensions rising in the Pacific, the ESG has been ordered to patrol the South China Sea.  • While in the South China Sea, combat has broken out, and the ESG is targeted and suffers several casualties on most of its ships.   Wargame design: This wargame used a hybrid type with open information for the format. The board used a linear-timeline square-based design, with each block in the timeline representing one month at sea. We used individual pamphlets representing each ship, with basic capabilities listed next to a pictorial description. Player decisions were tracked through an Excel file by a single data collector after each casualty was dealt to each ship.  Findings and Conclusions   The insights in response to the two wargames were carefully analyzed from wargaming output and were compiled, briefed, and reported to the sponsor. Because of the sensitivity of these results, they are CUI. The insights from the fall wargame were provided to the sponsor via the CUI Wargaming Executive Summary submitted to the sponsor in December 2021. The insights from the spring wargame were provided to the sponsor via the CUI Wargaming Executive Summary submitted to the sponsor in June 2022.  Limitations of the fall study include the following:   NPS NRP Executive Summary Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment Period of Performance: 10/23/2021 – 10/22/2022 Report Date: 10/22/2022 | Project Number: NPS-22-N140-A Naval Postgraduate School, Operations Research (OR)    Page 4 of 5   • The study could only address one scenario. • The posture mix included only manned assets. • The care levels of interest only considered Role II and Role III MTFs. • Homeland-theater and inter-theater medical logistics are not considered. • The study only considered assets that will be technologically mature as of 2035. • There is no real-world data on casualty rates produced by near-peer weapons against US ships and bases.  Limitations of the spring study include the following:   • The study was conducted in a CUI environment. A classified environment could have produced more relevant insights. • The study only reviewed the impact on warfighting effectiveness of material condition changes in individual surface combatants. • A classified study would have used more precise technical detail: o casualty specifications o operational taskings o maintenance tasks/progress  The findings both confirmed original expectations and presented areas for future research. The sponsor will use the study’s results to inform a path forward for future research.  Recommendations for Further Research Fall study: We recommend that future wargames and analytic events be conducted. We recommend workshops to better understand casualty evacuation and medical evacuation requirements in both competition and conflict phases. More studies need to be made to better understand how to stand up both Role II and Role III medical treatment facilities (MTFs), to include considering mobile Role II MTFs both with seaborne and airborne assets.  Future wargames may include the following:  1) Conducting casualty and medical evacuation wargames with players who have more appropriate backgrounds and expertise. 2) Conducting casualty and medical evacuation wargames at higher levels of classification. 3) Expanding the casualty and medical evacuation wargames to incorporate new and emerging knowledge of projected medical evacuation and casualty evacuation capabilities as well as new and emerging logistics platforms.  Because this is such a relevant topic whose findings should drive OPNAV N4 policies, we recommend that there be an annual recurring wargame that continues to examine these issues in order to inform new policy and doctrinal choices for the U.S. Department of Defense.  Spring study: We recommend future wargames and analytic events be conducted to analyze forward maintenance and repair. We recommend workshops to better understand and define Full–, Partial–, and Non–Mission Capable ratings for both surface and subsurface manned and unmanned Naval assets across the competition and conflict phases.   NPS NRP Executive Summary Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment Period of Performance: 10/23/2021 – 10/22/2022 Report Date: 10/22/2022 | Project Number: NPS-22-N140-A Naval Postgraduate School, Operations Research (OR)    Page 5 of 5   Future wargames may include the following:  1) Conducting forward maintenance and repair wargames with players who have appropriate backgrounds and expertise. 2) Conducting forward maintenance and repair wargames at higher levels of classification.  Because this is such a relevant topic whose findings should drive OPNAV N4 policies, we recommend that there be an annual recurring wargame that continues to examine these issues in order to inform new policy and doctrinal choices for the U.S. Department of Defense.  Acronyms CUI  controlled unclassified information  EPF  expeditionary fast transport ESG  expeditionary strike group  HADR  humanitarian assistance and disaster relief  MEDEVAC  medical evacuation MTF  medical treatment facility NMC    Non–Mission Capable PMC   Partial–Mission Capable 

Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment

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Warfare Analysis of Logistics Agility in a Contested Environment

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Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School