Kaynar, Ayşegül Kars

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Turkey’s Envisioned Exit fromAuthoritarianismAy#egül Kars Kaynar 2023-04-05T16:34:11Turkey has been ruled by the AKP (Justice and Development Party) under RecepTayyip Erdo#an’s leadership for more than 20 years. Throughout this time, Erdo#angot almost total control over state administration and judiciary, and enchainedthe media and big capital owners to himself. In 2017, he constitutionalized aone-man rule by changing the political regime from parliamentarism to executivepresidentialism in a referendum conducted under state of emergency restrictions.Since 2022, a joint political platform called Nation Alliance (aka the Table of Six)1)appeared as the most powerful competitor and a real challenge to Erdo#an’srule. The Nation Alliance vows to change the political regime from executivepresidentialism to parliamentary democracy in case it should defeat Erdo#an on May14. The opposition does not envision a restoration of the pre-2017 system, but rathera strengthened parliamentary model by means of a series of legal and constitutionalchanges.The scope of the proposed regime change has been relatively well discussed (alsohere and here). What is less emphasized is how the transition from one regimeto another would take place. In that regard, Turkey will turn over a new leaf in itsRepublican history, if, for the first time, a regime change would take place through acivilian transition.The relevance of dual elections on May 14The date for Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections was set for May 14.In both of the elections a very fierce struggle will be fought between the NationAlliance of six opposition parties and the People’s Alliance of ruling AKP and thenationalist MHP (Nationalist Movement Party). After protracted negotiations, theNation Alliance picked Kemal K#l#çdaro#lu, the leader of CHP (Republican People’sParty), on March 6 as its joint presidential candidate. On March 10, Erdo#anannounced himself as the candidate of the People’s Alliance amid severe debateson constitutionality of his candidacy. Erdo#an was elected as the president for thefirst time in August 2014. In June 2018, he was elected for the second time as thepresident of the new executive presidential system. After constitutional amendmentsof January 2017, Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution reads that a person can beelected president two times at most. According to Article 116 of the Constitution,a president serving his second term can only run again if the parliament resolvesto renew the elections – which is not the case for May 14 elections. Although theconstitutional articles are unambiguous, on March 24 the Supreme Election Councilapproved Erdo#an’s presidential candidacy, and on March 30, unanimously ruled toreject any objections against this.- 1 -Even though all eyes are on the presidential elections, it is also well known thatvictory in presidential race will not be enough for the regime change promised by theNation Alliance. In order to enact the reform laws, the opposition must secure thenecessary majorities in a 600-seat parliament – a simple majority for new laws anda qualified majority for constitutional amendments. In this case, every vote countsfor the Nation Alliance. K#l#çdaro#lu’s overtures to left-wing parties as well as hismeeting with the co-chairs of HDP (Peoples’ Democratic Party) is an attempt toamplify the Alliance’s power and broaden its electoral base. Despite the apparentirreconcilability between the nationalist Good Party (second largest party of theNation Alliance after the CHP) and the pro-Kurdish HDP, it is not hard to imaginethat the HDP would support the Nation Alliance in parliament. It is mainly because;both the Alliance and the HDP emphasize political regime change, freedoms, anddemocracy, as stated in the election manifesto of the Green Left Party, under whoseumbrella the HDP will compete in the May elections in order to baffle the possibleclosure of the party. The HDP also announced that it will not field a presidentialcandidate in order to “fulfill its duty against the one-man regime”.Erdo#an’s People’s Alliance, on the other hand, is on a similar path of extension.Recently, archconservative New Welfare Party and Hüda-Par (Free Cause Party),the successor of Islamist armed group Hezbollah, announced their support toPeople’s Alliance. Although these two parties do not have large vote shares, theyare symbolically important. The New Welfare Party wants to abolish Law no 6284, apenal code that offers state protection to women facing abuse at home, close LGBTI+ organizations, and end alimony to women after divorce. Hüda-Par’s policy agenda,on the other hand, includes abolishment of compulsory coeducation, opening ofseparate schools for boys and girls at all levels of education, and criminalization ofadultery. With these two new political parties, the People’s Alliance poses an abjectthreat to democratic rights and freedoms.The Nation Alliance’s job is hard; the race is very close. Still, most polls showK#l#çdaro#lu ahead of Erdo#an, which raises hopes for an exit from authoritarianismthrough elections.The envisioned transitional periodAuthoritarianism is one of the recurring themes in almost all of the National Alliance’smemoranda of understanding. For instance, the Memorandum of Understandingon Reinforced Parliamentary System states that the presidential system has ledto personalization and arbitrariness in governance; and created an authoritarianrule by granting the president very broad and unchecked powers that put thelegislature, executive and judiciary under his control. Meanwhile, the Memorandumof Understanding on Common Policies, sees the presidential system as the basicreason behind the deepest administrative and economic crisis in the history ofRepublic. Against this context, the Nation Alliance pledges to establish separation ofpowers through an effective and participatory legislative, a stable, transparent andaccountable executive, and an independent and impartial judiciary for the realizationof a strong, liberal, democratic and just system under parliamentary regime.- 2 -Corresponding to the unprecedented havoc that Erdo#an’s one-man rule haswreaked on the constitutional state and democracy during two decades, the scopeof reforms proposed by the Nation Alliance is also very broad, covering 2.300policies and projects under nine themes and 75 sub-themes. Their implementationrequires amending 84 articles of the Turkish Constitution under nine headings. Thatbeing the case, a transitional parliament is needed for a change of this magnitude.The Roadmap of the Transition Process to a Strengthened Parliamentary Systemdraws the outline of such a transitional parliament. The Roadmap limits the termof office of the president and the parliament to be elected on May 14 with theperiod of transition to the parliamentary regime. Article 11 reads that after transitionto the strengthened parliamentary system, the president and the parliament willcomplete their mandate without the need for a new election.With the completion ofthe transition, the president’s political party membership will come to an end as well(Article 10). Hence, the president and the parliament to-be-elected are envisioned tocarry out the task of regime change and dissolve themselves as soon as this task isaccomplished.Turkey so far experienced such ad hoc parliaments as constituent assembliesestablished after the military coups of May 1960 and September 1980. In thesecases, regime change corresponded to transition from military junta rule to civiliangovernments. In case of a Nation Alliance’s victory, for the first time in Republicanhistory regime change will expectedly be realized through a transition period, inwhich power will be transferred from civilians to civilians again.The parliament stipulated by the Nation Alliance is also commensurate to aconstituent assembly: it would work temporarily, be elected by the people throughdirect and universal suffrage, and amend the constitution. It would not draft anew constitution, but the reforms prescribed to bring about the regime changeare so comprehensive and concise to the extent that it is almost equivalent topenning a new constitution. Nor will the parliament’s sole task be to consolidate theparliamentary system. It will also continue its normal legislative activity and (with thepowers it will acquire through the reforms) oversee the government.Other devices are also set forth to strengthen the participatory and deliberativecharacter of the parliament. According to the Article 9 of the Roadmap, certainmechanisms will be established to coordinate the collaborative legislative activityduring the transition. These mechanisms have not yet been concretely discussed.Yet, they are critical to ensure that civil society actors are actively involved in thetransition process. Similarly, The Memorandum of Understanding on CommonPolicies and the Memorandum of Understanding on Reinforced ParliamentarySystem reiterate that it will be a rule to seek the opinions of relevant civil societyinstitutions, professional organizations and experts during the discussion of lawproposals and drafts in the parliamentary committees. If this participation can beeffectively realized, civil society will be integrated into the law-making process in thelong term, not only during the transition period.May 14 elections is a turning point for Turkey. All hopes for the restoration ofdemocracy are pinned on the ballot box to bring an end to the long-standingauthoritarian rule.- 3 -References• They are the Republican People’s Party, Good Party, Felicity Party, DemocratParty, Future Party, and Democracy and Progress Party.- 4 -

Turkey’s Envisioned Exit from Authoritarianism

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Turkey’s Envisioned Exit from Authoritarianism

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