The political consequences of green policies: evidence from Italy
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Abstract
For many governments, enacting green policies is a priority, but such policies often
impose on citizens substantial and uneven costs. How does the introduction of green
policies affect voting? We study this question in the context of a major ban on polluting
cars introduced in Milan, which was strongly opposed by the populist right party
Lega. Using several inferential strategies, we show that owners of banned vehicles—
who incurred a median loss of €3,750—were significantly more likely to vote for Lega
in the subsequent elections. Our analysis indicates that this electoral change did not
stem from a broader shift against environmentalism, but rather from disaffection with
the policy’s uneven pocketbook implications. In line with this pattern, recipients of
compensation from the local government were not more likely to switch to Lega. The
findings highlight the central importance of distributive consequences in shaping the
political ramifications of green policies