Optimal timing for power plant maintenance in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas in a changing climate

Abstract

We analyzed data for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to assess shoulder seasons -- that is, the 45 days of lowest total energy use and peak demand in the spring and fall -- and whether their occurrence has changed over time. Over the period 1996--2022, the shoulder seasons never started earlier than late March nor later than mid-October, corresponding well with the minimum of total degree days. In the temperature record 1959--2022, the minimum in degree days in the spring moved earlier, from early March to early February, and in the fall moved later, from early to mid-November. Warming temperatures might cause these minima in degree days to merge into a single annual minimum in December or January by the mid-2040s, a time when there is a non-trivial risk of 1-day record energy use and peak demand from winter storms