Large-scale variational quantum algorithms possess an expressive capacity
that is beyond the reach of classical computers and is widely regarded as a
potential pathway to achieving practical quantum advantages. However, the
presence of quantum noise might suppress and undermine these advantages, which
blurs the boundaries of classical simulability. To gain further clarity on this
matter, we present a novel polynomial-scale method that efficiently
approximates quantum mean values in variational quantum algorithms with bounded
truncation error in the presence of independent single-qubit depolarizing
noise. Our method is based on path integrals in the Pauli basis. We have
rigorously proved that, for a fixed noise rate λ, our method's time and
space complexity exhibits a polynomial relationship with the number of qubits
n, the circuit depth L, the inverse truncation error
ε1, and the inverse success probability
δ1. Furthermore, We also prove that computational complexity
becomes Poly(n,L) when the noise rate λ exceeds
logL1 and it becomes exponential with L when the noise rate
λ falls below L1