Bugmann, Harald

Gimmi, Urs

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EDITORIALPreface: integrating historical ecology and ecologicalmodelingUrs Gimmi • Harald BugmannReceived: 14 March 2013 / Accepted: 19 March 2013 / Published online: 27 March 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013There is increasing consensus that not only the presentstructure and functioning of ecosystems, but also theirresponse to environmental stressors and managementpractices is partly a legacy of the system’s history(Rhemtulla and Mladenoff 2007). Similarly, thereis little dispute that in order to assess the futuretrajectories of ecosystems, models of some sort needto be employed (e.g., Shugart 1998). Thus, there is aclear interface between the scientific attempts toelucidate the past of ecosystems (historical ecology)and the attempts to project their future dynamics(ecological modeling). However, to date this interfacehas received relatively little attention in scientificresearch (cf. Anderson et al. 2006).On the one hand, historical ecological researchusually aims at uncovering past ecosystem dynamicsand their drivers, using and combining a large varietyof historical data sources (Egan and Howell 2001).A comprehensive understanding of anthropogenicimpacts on ecosystems is not only crucial for theaccurate interpretation of current ecosystem states,but it also forms the baseline for predictions of theirfuture development, and for more informed ecosystemmanagement (Bu¨rgi and Gimmi 2007). Historicalecologists therefore tend to emphasize the importanceof their research for other fields such as ecosystemmodeling, but they preferably place such statements inthe outlook sections of their papers, often without a clearconcept of how such integration should be achieved.On the other hand, many modeling studies thatproject the future state and fate of ecosystems areusing baseline assumptions regarding current ecosys-tem states that are not much more than guessworkbecause they lack a historical consideration. A case inpoint is the assumption in studies of the future carboncycle, a topic of eminent scientific, practical andpolitical relevance, that current ecosystem carbonstorage is in equilibrium with an assumed constantpast climate and a constant past management(e.g., Wolf et al. 2012, and many others). Under mostconditions, however, both assumptions are highlyquestionable, and are acceptable only because reliableand accessible data on past conditions are often absent.Indeed, the quest of modeling studies for appropriatehistorical data to set up more realistic ‘‘spin-up’’ runsof the models is often futile, as historical data arehardly ever collected and made available with thetarget variables of modeling studies in mind, unless aclose collaboration is sought between modelers andhistorical ecologists (cf. Gimmi et al. 2009). Still,modelers tend to view historical ecology mainly as asource of ‘useful’ data while they underestimate theU. Gimmi (&)Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Swiss FederalInstitute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL,8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerlande-mail: urs.gimmi@wsl.chH. BugmannDepartment of Environmental Systems Science,Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems,ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland123Landscape Ecol (2013) 28:785–787DOI 10.1007/s10980-013-9884-ycomplexity and uncertainty inherent in quantitativehistorical reconstructions of land cover, land-use, andtheir drivers.This Special Feature aims to contribute to bridgingthe common, but inappropriate divide between‘modelers’ and ‘non-modelers’ (in this case, historicalecologist) by presenting examples of the successfulcombination of historical ecological research andmodeling approaches. In disciplines closely relatedto historical ecology, such as paleoenvironmentalsciences (Anderson et al. 2006) and archeology (John-son et al. 2005), the integration of modeling isestablished to a larger degree. Anderson et al. (2006)outlined the benefits of linking paleoenvironmental dataand models to understand the past and project futureenvironmental changes. They identified different modeshow paleoenvironmental studies and models can beinterlinked. First, paleo data can be used to validateecological models and thus to test the reliability ofmodel-based scenario assessments. In turn, models can beused as independent lines of evidence for pre-historicalland-use dynamics. Second, models can be used tointegrate and synthesize data on past environmentalconditions deriving from different disciplines (e.g.,historical, archaeological and paleoenvironmental data)and covering different spatial and temporal scales(Johnson et al. 2005). Finally, models can be used tosupport data interpretation, for example by introducingbaseline scenario calculations such as potential naturalvegetation, which can be compared against historical datasets (e.g., Gimmi et al. 2009).We use a similar typology in this Special Feature byconsidering the potential benefits resulting from the‘cross-pollination’ of historical ecology and ecologi-cal modeling, as outlined below.(1) Models may support the interpretation of histor-ical land-use change Models are of great valuefor identifying the causes of past land-usedynamics. With the help of statistical models,observed past land-use changes can be related topotential abiotic (e.g., climate and topography)and socio-economic driving forces. In this way,models can be used to test hypotheses about keyfactors driving observed changes in land-use. Wepresent two papers of this type in this SpecialFeature. Biro´ et al. (2013) reconstruct the loss ofsemi-natural grasslands in Hungary after thebreakdown of the socialist system and interpretthe related drivers using generalized linear mod-els (GLMs), whereas Garbarino et al. (2013)apply path analysis to disentangle the effects ofland-use and topography on structural changes insubalpine larch (Larix decidua) forests(2) Models can be used as independent lines ofevidence for historical land-use dynamics Thereliability of historical land-use reconstructionscan be tested by cross-comparison with otherindependent sources, or alternatively with theoutput of land-use models. Henne et al. (2013)combine sedimentary pollen records and dynamiclandscape modeling to reconstruct forest vegeta-tion prior to human colonization and its sensitivityto human-induced alteration of fire and browsingregimes for a Mediterranean ecosystem. Theirfindings provide strong evidence for the potentialof historically abundant but vanished vegetationtypes under the present climate.(3) Models may support the reconstruction of his-torical ecosystem dynamics While general land-use patters can be reconstructed based on historicalsources, the same sources often do not provide directinformation about many aspects of related ecosys-tem dynamics (e.g., biodiversity or biogeochemicalcycles). Here, ecosystem models may serve as auseful tool to uncover these hidden aspects. Gimmiet al. (2013) demonstrate long-term legacy effects ofhistorical litter raking in the soil carbon pools ofSwiss forests. They use documentary evidence todetermine this historic land-use regime and linktheir findings with a biogeochemical model in orderto evaluate the effects on soil carbon.(4) Historical data can strongly support thecalibration of predictive models Informationon past land-use and ecosystem dynamics isessential to make reliable predictions abouttheir future development. Panzacchi et al.(2013) reconstruct traditional migration corri-dors for Norwegian wild reindeer with thehelp of archeological findings and comparethese routes with current movement behaviorthat was evaluated based on GPS tracking ofthe animals. They relate the abandonment oftraditional migration routes to the presence ofanthropogenic features (roads and touristinfrastructure etc.) and develop a model topredict the impact of additional human distur-bance on reindeer migration786 Landscape Ecol (2013) 28:785–787123Finally, Klein Goldewijk and Verburg (2013) con-sider the uncertainties in reconstructions of land-use atcontinental to global scales. This is a methodologicalcontribution rather than a case study of any specificphenomenon, but it clearly highlights that depending onthe purpose of a study that aims at using historicalecological data in a modeling context, different caveatsneed to be taken into account. They apply source critics(a basic concept in historical research) to evaluatethe uncertainties in their modeled land-use dataset.This goes beyond the sensitivity analysis that is oftenconducted by modelers to assess the importance ofmodel parameters and to determine the key driversunderlying the simulation results. Klein Goldewijk andVerburg (2013) critically and openly discuss the manyissues surrounding the quality and reliability of theparameters underlying land-use reconstructions.The six papers of this Special Feature reveal thatthe integration of historical ecology and ecologicalmodeling is possible across a wide range of temporaland spatial scales (Fig. 1). They also illustrate thatsuccessful interdisciplinary cooperation between his-torical ecologists and modelers goes far beyond simpledata exchange, but requires intensive collaborationbased on the mutual interest in each other’s researchfield. This allows the researchers to develop a sense forthe realistic possibilities of the other discipline, and toachieve awareness of its inherent limitations.Acknowledgments This Special Feature derives from asession on ‘Integrating Historical Ecology and EcologicalModeling’ at the international conference ‘Frontiers inHistorical Ecology’ held at the Swiss Federal ResearchInstitute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL inSummer 2011. We wish to express our thanks to Jingle Wu,Editor-in-Chief of Landscape Ecology, for supporting thisSpecial Feature, and to Matthias Bu¨rgi for constructivecomments on an earlier version of the manuscript.ReferencesAnderson NJ, Bugmann H, Dearing JA, Gaillard M-J (2006)Linking palaeoenvironmental data and models to under-stand the past and to predict the future. Trends Ecol Evol21:696–704Biro´ M, Czu´cz B, Horva´th F, Re´ve´sz A, Csata´ri B, Molna´r Z(2013) Drivers of grassland loss in Hungary during thepost-socialist transformation (1987–1999). LandscapeEcol. doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9818-0Bu¨rgi M, Gimmi U (2007) Three objectives of historical ecol-ogy: the case of litter collecting in Central European for-ests. Landscape Ecol 22:77–87Egan D, Howell EA (2001) The historical ecology handbook: arestorationist’s guide to reference ecosystems. Island Press,Washington, DCGarbarino M, Lingua E, Weisberg PJ, Bottero A, Meloni F,Motta R (2013) Land-use history and topographic gradientsas driving factors of subalpine Larix deciduas forests.Landscape Ecol. doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9792-6Gimmi U, Wolf A, Bu¨rgi M, Scherstjanoi M, Bugmann H (2009)Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon poolsin mountain forests based on historical data. Reg EnvironChang 9:121–130Gimmi U, Poulter B, Wolf A, Portner H, Weber P, Bu¨rgi M(2013) Soil carbon pools in Swiss forests show legacyeffects from historical forest litter raking. Landscape Ecol.doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9778-4Henne PD, Elkin C, Colombaroli D, Samartin S, Bugmann H,Heiri O, Tinner W (2013) Impacts of changing climate andland use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean eco-system: insights from paleoecology and dynamic model-ing. Landscape Ecol. doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9782-8Johnson DC, Kohler TA, Cowan J (2005) Modeling historicalecology, thinking about contemporary systems. Am Anthro-pol 107:96–107Klein Goldewijk K, Verburg PH (2013) Uncertainties in global-scale reconstructions of historical land use. LandscapeEcol. doi:10.007/s10980-013-9877-xPanzacchi M, Van Moorter B, Jordhøy P, Strand O (2013)Learning from the past to predict the future: using arche-ological findings and GPS data to quantify reindeer sensi-tivity to anthropogenic disturbance in Norway. LandscapeEcol. doi:10.1007/s10980-012-9793-5Rhemtulla JM, Mladenoff DJ (2007) Why history matters inecology. Landscape Ecol 22:1–3Shugart HH (1998) Terrestrial ecosystems in changing envi-ronments. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeWolf A, Lazzarotto P, Bugmann H (2012) The relative impor-tance of land use and climatic change in alpine catchments.Clim Chang 111:279–300Fig. 1 Spatial and temporal scales covered by the studiespresented in this Special Feature (BI Biro et al., GA Garbarinoet al., GI Gimmi et al., HE Henne et al., KL Klein Goldewijket al., PA Panzacchi et al.)Landscape Ecol (2013) 28:785–787 787123

Preface: integrating historical ecology and ecological modeling

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