Development and Evaluation of a Control Decision Rule for First-Generation Spotted Tentiform Leafminer (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) in New York Apple Orchards
A pest control decision rule consisting of an action threshold and a sampling protocol was developed and evaluated for first-generation spotted tentiform leafminer, Phyllonorycter blancardella (F.). An action threshold of two eggs per leaf was chosen based on the criterion of preventing more than one first-generation mine per leaf. Two sequential classification sampling plans for first-generation eggs were developed, one based on variable intensity sampling and the other on the use of confidence intervals for stop limits. Both plans made use of the nested variance structure of leafminer egg counts and variance-mean models fit to estimated variance components. Performance of the two sequential procedures was studied using simulation and judged to be very similar. Use of either sampling plan required approximately 10-20 min. Over a 4-yr period, 87% of sampled orchards in western New York had leafminer populations that were below the threshold of two eggs per leaf. During this period, use of sample information to schedule insecticide treatments resulted in only one instance when a treatment may have been required and was not called for (n = 79). Widespread use of the decision rule would result in significant reductions in pesticide use with no attendant increase in risk to grower
