This paper presents a novel approach to distinguish the impact of
duration-dependent forces and adverse selection on the exit rate from
unemployment by leveraging variation in the length of layoff notices. I
formulate a Mixed Hazard model in discrete time and specify the conditions
under which variation in notice length enables the identification of structural
duration dependence while allowing for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers.
Utilizing data from the Displaced Worker Supplement (DWS), I employ the
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate the model. According to the
estimates, the decline in the exit rate over the first 48 weeks of unemployment
is largely due to the worsening composition of surviving jobseekers.
Furthermore, I find that an individual's likelihood of exiting unemployment
decreases initially, then increases until unemployment benefits run out, and
remains steady thereafter. These findings are consistent with a standard search
model where returns to search decline early in the spell