Evaluation of Global Warming Mitigation Policies with a Dynamic World Energy-economic Model Considering Changes in Industrial Structures by IT Penetration
This study aims to reveal their impacts of changes in the industrial structures and the rapid IT (Information Technology) penetration on economic activities and energy systems under CO2 emission constraints by using a dynamic world energy-economic model, namely, DEARS (Dynamic Energy-economic model with multi-Regions and multi-Sectors). This model deals with 18 divided regions and 18 non-energy sectors by integrating top-down economy and bottom-up energy system modules to assess global warming mitigation policies. The energy module of DEARS comprises seven types of primary energy sources and four types of secondary energy with the consideration of CCS (Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage). Simulation studies, combining the carbon emission policies with the input-output coefficient scenarios, are conducted: the climate policies consist of the non-climate policy case and the two constraint cases meeting the IPCC-S550 or -S450 ppmv stabilizations, and the input-output scenarios consist of the fixed coefficient case and the two variable coefficients cases with consideration of changes in industrial structures and rapid IT (information technology) penetration. The results suggest that the carbon stabilization policies and the evolutions of industrial structures and IT lead not only to changes in energy systems but also the shift to lower carbon and energy intensity, and higher value-added industry. This indicates that the post-heavy industrial structures by the IT penetration will leads to sustainable economic developments
