The spatial distribution of causal factors behind the seismicity in the Delaware basin

Abstract

Our analysis hindcasts seismicity rates of magnitude (M) ≥ 1.5 in the Delaware Basin (West Texas) from 2017 through 2019 on a 5km grid using either HF or SWD data as input, and compares them against the null hypothesis of solely tectonic loading. Each block is assigned a p-value, indicating the statistical confidence of its causal link with either HF, shallow SWD or deep SWD injection operations. To do that we expanded the framework of Grigoratos et al. (2020) to daily hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations and pressure-driven modeling of wastewater disposal (SWD). Our results indicate that 60% of the earthquakes occurred in blocks with p ≤ 0.05 (95% confidence interval) for at least one examined causal factor, and are thus triggered by oil and gas activities. This percentage increases to 68% for p ≤ 0.10 (90% confidence interval). Overall, more events than previously identified are associated with HF, especially within Reeves county. That said, shallow SWD is linked to more earthquakes, likely reactivating parallel faults of significant length. The seismicity around Pecos city seems to be affected by more than one injection activity, with higher frequency operational data and better depth resolution needed to fully decouple causality. Finally, within Culberson county, the only area where the earthquakes occur predominantly within the basement, the identified triggering mechanism is far-field SWD from deep wells

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