Hvingel, Carsten

Zimmermann, Fabian

English

Brage IMR

JOINTREPORTI M R / P I N R O22023Joint Report SeriesAdvice on fishing opportunitiesfor Barents Sea shrimp in 2023Institute of Marine Research – IMR Polar branch of the FSBSI “VINRO” (“PINRO”)Report series:IMR-PINROYear - No.:2023-2Date:08.03.2023Author(s):Carsten Hvingel and Fabian Zimmermann (IMR)Reasearch group leader(s): Carsten Hvingel (Bentiske ressurser ogprosesser) Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s):Maria FossheimDistribution:OpenResearch group(s):Bentiske ressurser og prosesserNumber of pages:18Title (English and Norwegian):Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2023 Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2023Content1 Advice on fishing opportunities 42 Stock development over time 53 Catch scenarios 64 Basis of the advice 75 Quality of assessment 86 Issues relevant for the advice 97 Reference points 108 Basis of the assessment 119 History of the advice, catch, and management 1210 History of the catch and landings 1311 Summary of the assessment 1512 Sources and references 17 1 - Advice on fishing opportunitiesBased on the MSY approach and an updated assessment methodology endorsed by an international panel of expertsin 2022 ( ICES 2022 ), the catches in 2023 should not exceed 153 000 tonnes.Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20231 - Advice on fishing opportunities4/182 - Stock development over timeFishing pressure on the stock is below F  and F  and stock biomass is above MSY  and B . Figure 1 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Summary of the stock assessment. Top: total catches (the paler bar ispreliminary estimation for 2022). Bottom: biomass and fishing mortality relative to B MSY and FMSY, respectively, with 95%confidence intervals. MSY lim Btrigger limAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20232 - Stock development over time5/183 - Catch scenariosTable 1 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch scenarios.Variable Value NotesMean F /F 0.30 Corresponds to the estimated catch in 2022.Mean B /B 1.67 B  is the biomass at the end of 2022, considering the estimated catch in 2022.Catch 2022 (t) 56 792 Preliminary data All catches are assumed to be landed;in tonnes.Table 2 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Annual catch scenarios for 2023.Basis Fish at F F  mode Constant catchCatches (kt) 188 153 100 125 150 175Stock size (B/B ) 1.54 1.58 1.63 1.61 1.58 1.55Fishing mortality (F/F ) 1.00 0.80 0.52 0.65 0.79 0.93Probability of falling below B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Probability of falling below B 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Probability of exceeding F 50.0% 39.1% 20.0% 29.2% 38.1% 46.2%Probability of exceeding F 24.8% 16.9% 6.4% 11.0% 16.3% 21.9%2022 MSY2022 MSY 2022MSY MSYMSYMSYlimtriggermsylimAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20233 - Catch scenarios6/184 - Basis of the adviceTable 3 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the advice.Advice basis MSY approach using F .Management plan No agreed precautionary management plan for northern shrimp in this area.MSYAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20234 - Basis of the advice7/185 - Quality of assessmentThis stock was benchmarked in 2022 (ICES, 2022). Revised methods for estimation of CPUE and survey index,updated stock priors and a change of the modeling framework ( SpiCT ) were accepted. Combined, this did not alter theoverall trends over time or the state of the stock in respect to reference points. Compared to the pre-benchmarkassessment in 2021, this yearâ€™s assessment has resulted in a downward revision of stock biomass and an upwardrevision of F.The 2022 survey data from the Russian EEZ (approximately 50% of the entire survey area) was not available in timefor the stock assessment. The incomplete survey data set for 2022 adds uncertainty to the assessment.Figure 2 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Current (bold dark-blue line) and historical assessment results (previous fouryears) .Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20235 - Quality of assessment8/186 - Issues relevant for the adviceThe advice was derived by IMR (Institute of Marine Research) based on the assessment framework endorsed in 2022by the benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks (WKPRAWN) (ICES 2022). The mode of the probability distribution ofF  is used as the basis for the advice, given the higher uncertainty on the right-hand side of its probabilitydistribution. Catches corresponding to the fishing mortality at median F  would imply catches of 188 000 tonnes in2023.MSYMSYAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20236 - Issues relevant for the advice9/187 - Reference pointsTable 4 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.Framework Referencep oint Value Technical basis SourceMSY approach MSY B 0.5 ×B  *Relative value. B  is estimated directly from the assessment model and changeswhen the assessment is updated.ICES(2013)MSY approach F r/2 * Relative value. F  is estimated directly from the assessment model and changeswhen the assessment is updated.ICES(2013)Precautionaryapproach B0.3 ×B Relative value (equilibrium yield at this biomass is 50% of MSY).ICES(2013)Precautionaryapproach BNotdefined **  Precautionaryapproach F1.7 ×F Relative value (the F that drives the stock to Blim).*ICES(2013)Precautionaryapproach FNotdefined **  * Fishing mortality is presented in relation to F  , and total stock biomass is presented in relation to B  . r is the intrinsic biomassgrowth rate. These values are directly estimated from the stock assessment and change when the assessment is updated. ** B  and Fare not defined as t he assessment provides direct estimate s of the probabilities of B < B  and of F > F .triggerMSYMSYMSYMSYlimMSYpalimMSYpaMSY MSYpa palim limAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20237 - Reference points10/188 - Basis of the assessmentTable 5 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Basis of the assessment and advice.Assessmenttype Surplus production in continuous time (SPiCT)Input dataFishery catches 1970–2022. Three survey indices: the Norwegian shrimp survey 1982–2004 [G3653], the Russian shrimpsurvey 1984–2005 [G4941], and the Norwegian–Russian ecosystem survey (Eco-Norw-Q3 [A5216]) since 2004; onefishery-based index (standardized CPUE from Norwegian logbooks) since 1980.Discards andbycatch Discarding is considered to be negligible.Otherinformation NoneAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20238 - Basis of the assessment11/189 - History of the advice, catch, and managementTable 6 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES advice and official landings. Weights are in tonnes.Year Advice Catches corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catches2005 No increase compared to 2004 43600 - 42 6182006 No increase in catch above recent level 40000 - 29 6272007 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 29 9312008 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 28 1882009 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 27 2722010 Catch that will prevent exceeding Flim in the long term 50000 - 25 1982011 Catch that will prevent exceeding F  in the long term 60000 - 30 2262012 Catch that will prevent exceeding F  in the long term 60000 - 24 7562013 Catch that will maintain stock at current high biomass 60000 - 19 2492014 No new advice, same as for 2013 60000 - 20 9642015 Move exploitation towards F < 70000 - 34 0222016 Move exploitation towards F < 70000 - 30 7492017 Move exploitation towards F ≤ 70000 - 30 4422018 MSY approach: move exploitation towards F ≤ 70000 - 56 3412019 MSY approach: move exploitation towards F ≤ 70000 - 76 0862020 MSY approach: mode of the F  distribution as basis ≤ 150000 - 61 8772021 MSY approach: mode of the F  distribution as basis ≤ 140000 - 58 0302022 MSY approach: mode of the F  distribution as basis ≤ 140000 - 56 7912023 MSY approach: mode of the F  distribution as basis ≤ 1 53 000   MSYMSYMSYMSYMSYMSYMSYMSYMSYMSYMSYAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 20239 - History of the advice, catch, and management12/1810 - History of the catch and landingsTable 7 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. ICES catches (tonnes). “Others” are EU, Iceland, Faroes, Greenland, and UK.Year Norway Russia Others Total1970 5508 0 0 55081971 5116 0 26 51421972 6772 0 0 67721973 6921 0 0 69211974 8008 0 0 80081975 8197 0 2 81991976 9752 0 0 97521977 14700 0 4854 195541978 20484 18270 189 389431979 25435 10474 390 362991980 35061 11219 0 462801981 32713 9886 1011 436101982 43451 15552 3835 628381983 70798 29105 4903 1048061984 76636 43180 8246 1280621985 82123 32104 10262 1244891986 48569 10216 6538 653231987 31353 6690 5324 433671988 32021 12320 4348 486891989 47064 12252 3432 627481990 54182 20295 6687 811641991 39663 29434 6156 752531992 39657 20944 8021 686221993 32663 22397 806 558661994 20162 7108 1063 283331995 19337 3564 2319 252201996 25445 5747 3320 345121997 29079 1493 5163 357351998 44792 4895 6103 557901999 52612 10765 12293 756702000 55333 19596 5768 806972001 43031 5846 8408 572852002 48799 3790 8899 614882003 34172 2776 2277 392252004 35918 2410 4406 427342005 37253 435 4930 42618Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 202310 - History of the catch and landings13/182006 27352 4 2271 296272007 25558 192 4180 299302008 20662 417 7109 281882009 19784 0 7489 272732010 16776 0 8419 251952011 19928 0 10298 302262012 14159 5 10600 247632013 8846 1067 9335 192482014 10234 741 9989 209642015 16618 1151 16253 340222016 10898 2491 17359 307492017 7010 3849 19582 304422018 23126 12561 20654 563412019 23925 28081 21576 735822020 19116 21265 18000 583802021 30281 12378 15370 580302022 368 62 3790 1613 8 56791Year Norway Russia Others Total*Preliminary**Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 202310 - History of the catch and landings14/1811 - Summary of the assessmentTable 8 : Northern shrimp in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Assessment summary. Biomass is relative to BMSY at the end of the year andfishing mortality relative to FMSY. High and low values are the 95% confidence intervals. Catches are in tonnes. Catches for 2021and 2022 are preliminary.YearB/B Catch (t)F /F Mean L ow High Mean Low High1970 1.47 0.89 2.43 5508 0.03 0.01 0.121971 1.52 0.92 2.52 5142 0.03 0.01 0.131972 1.60 0.97 2.65 6772 0.04 0.01 0.151973 1.61 0.98 2.65 6921 0.04 0.01 0.161974 1.63 1.00 2.65 8008 0.04 0.01 0.171975 1.60 1.00 2.56 8199 0.05 0.01 0.181976 1.72 1.11 2.66 9752 0.06 0.02 0.241977 2.05 1.36 3.06 19554 0.12 0.03 0.471978 2.13 1.47 3.08 38943 0.16 0.04 0.621979 2.05 1.50 2.82 36299 0.17 0.04 0.661980 2.25 1.67 3.03 46280 0.17 0.04 0.681981 2.41 1.79 3.24 43610 0.17 0.04 0.681982 2.56 1.90 3.45 62838 0.27 0.07 1.061983 2.84 2.11 3.83 104806 0.36 0.09 1.411984 2.76 2.04 3.74 128062 0.42 0.10 1.641985 2.02 1.49 2.75 124489 0.40 0.10 1.591986 1.32 0.98 1.79 65323 0.32 0.08 1.291987 1.14 0.84 1.55 43367 0.33 0.08 1.291988 1.30 0.96 1.76 48689 0.36 0.09 1.401989 1.52 1.13 2.06 62748 0.41 0.10 1.611990 1.67 1.23 2.27 81164 0.41 0.10 1.641991 1.90 1.40 2.57 75253 0.32 0.08 1.281992 2.15 1.59 2.91 68622 0.26 0.07 1.041993 1.98 1.46 2.68 55866 0.17 0.04 0.681994 1.62 1.20 2.19 28333 0.13 0.03 0.511995 1.65 1.22 2.23 25220 0.15 0.04 0.601996 1.83 1.35 2.47 34512 0.16 0.04 0.651997 2.00 1.48 2.69 35735 0.18 0.05 0.711998 2.25 1.67 3.04 55790 0.25 0.06 0.991999 2.17 1.61 2.94 75670 0.33 0.08 1.302000 1.96 1.44 2.65 80697 0.29 0.07 1.172001 1.95 1.44 2.64 57285 0.26 0.07 1.042002 1.81 1.34 2.46 61488 0.23 0.06 0.932003 1.65 1.22 2.23 39225 0.20 0.05 0.80MSY MSYAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 202311 - Summary of the assessment15/182004 1.79 1.32 2.41 42734 0.21 0.05 0.842005 2.09 1.55 2.82 42618 0.14 0.04 0.572006 2.20 1.63 2.97 29627 0.11 0.03 0.442007 2.26 1.67 3.04 29930 0.11 0.03 0.442008 2.18 1.62 2.93 28188 0.11 0.03 0.432009 2.09 1.55 2.82 27273 0.10 0.03 0.412010 1.98 1.47 2.67 25195 0.12 0.03 0.472011 1.73 1.28 2.33 30226 0.14 0.04 0.572012 1.41 1.04 1.91 24763 0.13 0.03 0.522013 1.24 0.92 1.67 19248 0.13 0.03 0.522014 1.22 0.90 1.65 20964 0.18 0.05 0.732015 1.22 0.90 1.65 34022 0.24 0.06 0.972016 1.18 0.87 1.59 30749 0.21 0.05 0.822017 1.28 0.95 1.72 30442 0.26 0.07 1.022018 1.42 1.05 1.93 56341 0.42 0.11 1.662019 1.31 0.96 1.78 73582 0.45 0.11 1.802020 1.19 0.88 1.61 58380 0.41 0.10 1.622021 1.44 1.06 1.94 58030 0.35 0.09 1.382022 1.67 1.20 2.31 56792 0.30 0.07 1.23YearB/B Catch (t)F /F Mean L ow High Mean Low HighAdvice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 202311 - Summary of the assessment16/1812 - Sources and referencesHvingel, C. and Zimmerman, F. 2023. Stock assessment report for Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in the BarentsSea (ICES Subareas 1 and 2). IMR-PINRO report series 2 -2023 .ICES. 2013. Report of the Inter-Benchmark Protocol on Pandalus in Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep (IBPPand),12–19 September 2013, Dartmouth, NS, Canada. ICES CM 2013/ACOM:71. 10pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5688.ICES. 2022. Benchmark workshop on Pandalus stocks ( WKPRAWN ). Edited by C. Lordan, and J. Lövgren.https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.19714204.v1Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 202312 - Sources and references17/18Institute of Marine Research – IMR Polar branch of the FSBSI “VINRO” (“PINRO”)

Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2023

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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea shrimp in 2023

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