Weighted Moving Average of Forecasting Method for Predicting Bitcoin Share Price using High Frequency Data: A Statistical Method in Financial Cryptocurrency Technology

Abstract

Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency that implemented decentralized digital currency method. The transaction is monitored and validated by peer-to peer system using hash programming. These transactions are verified by network nodes through the use of cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain. The objective of this study is to forecast the Bitcoin exchange rate using weighted moving average method. Data selected in this study are selected hourly from 14th December 2017 until 18th December 2017. The forecasting method is using weighted moving average. Then, the validity of the forecasting model is validated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) calculation. Results indicated mean absolute percentage error is 0.72%. Therefore, the moving average method is considered as reliable forecasting method for Bitcoin exchange rate. The finding of this study will help investors to make best decision regarding suitable portfolio for their investment