The CO-to-H2โ conversion factor (\alpha_\rm{CO}) is central to measuring
the amount and properties of molecular gas. It is known to vary with
environmental conditions, and previous studies have revealed lower
\alpha_\rm{CO} in the centers of some barred galaxies on kpc scales. To
unveil the physical drivers of such variations, we obtained ALMA Band 3, 6, and
7 observations toward the inner 2 kpc of NGC 3627 and NGC 4321 tracing
12CO, 13CO, and C18O lines on 100 pc scales. Our multi-line
modeling and Bayesian likelihood analysis of these datasets reveal variations
of molecular gas density, temperature, optical depth, and velocity dispersion,
which are among the key drivers of \alpha_\rm{CO}. The central 300 pc nuclei
in both galaxies show strong enhancement of temperature T_\rm{k}>100 K and
density n_\rm{H_2}>10^3 cmโ3. Assuming a CO-to-H2โ abundance of
3ร10โ4, we derive 4-15 times lower \alpha_\rm{CO} than the Galactic
value across our maps, which agrees well with previous kpc-scale measurements.
Combining the results with our previous work on NGC 3351, we find a strong
correlation of \alpha_\rm{CO} with low-J 12CO optical depths
(\tau_\rm{CO}), as well as an anti-correlation with T_\rm{k}. The
\tau_\rm{CO} correlation explains most of the \alpha_\rm{CO} variation in
the three galaxy centers, whereas changes in T_\rm{k} influence
\alpha_\rm{CO} to second order. Overall, the observed line width and
12CO/13CO 2-1 line ratio correlate with \tau_\rm{CO} variation in
these centers, and thus they are useful observational indicators for
\alpha_\rm{CO} variation. We also test current simulation-based
\alpha_\rm{CO} prescriptions and find a systematic overprediction, which
likely originates from the mismatch of gas conditions between our data and the
simulations.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; 30 pages of main text + 3 appendice