A Differential Effect Approach to Partial Identification of Treatment Effects

Abstract

We consider identification and inference for the average treatment effect and heterogeneous treatment effect conditional on observable covariates in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Since point identification of average treatment effect and heterogeneous treatment effect is not achievable without strong assumptions, we obtain bounds on both average and heterogeneous treatment effects by leveraging differential effects, a tool that allows for using a second treatment to learn the effect of the first treatment. The differential effect is the effect of using one treatment in lieu of the other, and it could be identified in some observational studies in which treatments are not randomly assigned to units, where differences in outcomes may be due to biased assignments rather than treatment effects. With differential effects, we develop a flexible and easy-to-implement semi-parametric framework to estimate bounds and establish asymptotic properties over the support for conducting statistical inference. We provide conditions under which causal estimands are point identifiable as well in the proposed framework. The proposed method is examined by a simulation study and two case studies using datasets from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System.Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, 11 table