Andreou, Georgia

Blue , Lucy

Breen, C

El Safadi, Crystal

Huigens, H.O.

Nikolaus, Julia

Ortiz-Vazquez, Rodrigo

Ray, Nick

Smith, Ash

Tews, Sophie

Westley, K

English

Climate change threatens coastal archaeology through storm flooding (extreme sea-level: ESL), long-term sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. Many regions, like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), lack key baseline evidence. We present initial results from a climate change threat assessment of MENA's coastal heritage using the Maritime Endangered Archaeology inventory: a geospatial database of MENA maritime archaeological sites incorporating a disturbance/ threat assessment. It informs two analyses of past disturbance and future threat: (1) using the integral threat/disturbance assessment, and (2) geospatial extraction of information from external coastal change models. Analysis suggests &lt;5% of documented coastal sites are definitely affected by coastal erosion but up to 34% could also have experienced past flooding, erosion, or storm action. Climate change-related threats will increase over the 21st Century and accelerate post-2050 if carbon emissions remain high. SLR and ESL could impact 14–25% of sites by 2050 and 18–34% by 2100. Over 30% to 40% of sites could be impacted by erosion by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Whilst documentation is ongoing and there remain modeling uncertainties, this approach provides a means to redress the absence of baseline data on climate change threats to coastal cultural heritage in MENA.</p

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Climate change and coastal archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa: assessing past impacts and future threats

https://pure.ulster.ac.uk/files/92099090/MarEA_Overview_ClimateChange_JICA_acceptedVersion.pdf

Climate change and coastal archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa: assessing past impacts and future threats

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