Spain’s new prime minister Pedro Sanchez rose to office against a backdrop of unprecedented drama. But now he could capitalise on the circumstances that landed him the top job to resolve the conflict with Catalonia

Almeda, Pere

Toubeau, Simon

English

Diposit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona

16/12/2019 What a new government in Spain means for Cataloniahttps://theconversation.com/what-a-new-government-in-spain-means-for-catalonia-97724 1/4AutoresSimon ToubeauAssistant Professor, School of Politics andInternational Relations, University ofNottinghamPere AlmedaAdjunct Lecturer, Universitat de BarcelonaRigor académico, oficio periodísticoSpain’s new prime minister Pedro Sanchez rose to office against a backdrop of unprecedented drama. But now he could capitalise on the circumstances that landedhim the top job to resolve the conflict with Catalonia.Sanchez successfully ousted his predecessor Mariano Rajoy by passing a motion of noconfidence against the Partido Popular government. Seizing on the uniqueopportunity offered by the sentencing of several prominent PP officials in a long-running corruption trial, the opposition leader moved quickly.Sanchez needed at least 176 votes but his Socialist party (PSOE) only had 84 seatsand Ciudadanos, a centrist-liberal formation with a strong Spanish nationalistrhetoric, wouldn’t endorse a new left-wing government. So, Sanchez needed tomuster the support of all other parties in the Spanish parliament. This included theleft-wing party Podemos, and several nationalist parties from the Basque country andCatalonia, such as Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC).EPA/Alrberto EstevezWhat a new government in Spain means for Catalonia7 junio 2018 12:52 CEST16/12/2019 What a new government in Spain means for Cataloniahttps://theconversation.com/what-a-new-government-in-spain-means-for-catalonia-97724 2/4At the same time, in Barcelona, Quim Torra – a Catalan nationalist hand-picked by the exiled formerpresident Carles Puigdemont – was elected leader of a new Catalan government. This came aftermonths of protracted negotiations that followed the extraordinary regional elections of December2017. These were called by the Spanish central government immediately after it suspended theCatalan government for having symbolically issued a unilateral declaration of independence after the referendum held on October 1.But any hope from Madrid that these elections would quell nationalist fervour backfired. The threeparties in favour of Catalan independence (JuntsPerCat, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya,Candidatura d’Unitat Popular) returned to parliament with a majority (albeit a slim one), determinedto pursue their cause, setting them on a collision course with Madrid.To avert this collision, Sanchez must now make good on the promise he made to his Catalanparliamentary allies to engage in a constructive dialogue with the Catalan government on how toresolve the ongoing conflict.The basis of a dealAt the basis of the deal between these parties was the common goal of ousting Rajoy from power. TheCatalan parties will offer stability for the Spanish government: support for the continuation of aminority PSOE administration until the end of the legislature in 2020 and support on the party’seconomic and social policies.In exchange, the PSOE will need to make progress dealing with Spain’s unsolved national andterritorial conflict since its transition to democracy in the late 1970s.Sanchez takes office after his bold move in parliament. EP/Emilio Naranjo16/12/2019 What a new government in Spain means for Cataloniahttps://theconversation.com/what-a-new-government-in-spain-means-for-catalonia-97724 3/4In the short term, Sanchez must de-escalate the conflict by putting an end to the acrimoniousrelationship between Spain and Catalonia. That means being willing to listen and to talk. There isalready a ring of cautious optimism on that front. Sanchez seems prepared to engage in dialogue –unlike Rajoy.Then Sanchez must restore the Catalan government’s authority, restoring devolved powers to theregional parliament. He will also have to deal with the trickier matter of the nationalist leaders whowere jailed last autumn. This is a fundamental demand among many Catalans, who see them aspolitical prisoners. But it may not be easy for the party to intervene in a judicial process without itlooking like obvious political meddling.In the longer term, Sanchez will need to think creatively about how to engage the Catalan governmentover Catalonia’s constitutional future within Spain. He will be treading a thin line, either side of whichstand staunch opponents. On one side are the dyed-in-the-wool Catalan republicans, who harbour aseemingly irrepressible will to assert Catalonia’s right to decide its future. They will almost certainlydemand a new, legally sanctioned referendum on self-determination. On the other side are thedefenders of national unity, the PP and Ciudadanos, which may well soon take over the mantle ofSpanish nationalism. They hold an equally firm view that any concession on the issue of self-determination is not permissible. That view is shared by an important portion of Spanish public,many of which vote for the PSOE. With a dwindling basis of electoral support, Sanchez can’t afford toalienate them.Federal reformSo Sanchez will have to remain committed to accommodating Catalonia within the framework of theconstitution. What that eventually looks like will depend on what is made possible by the politicalcoalition that supports reform. One potential strategy available to the PSOE is to (re)capitalise on itsties with the Catalan Socialist Party to reach out to moderate nationalist forces in the Catalanparliament. They could hash out an agreement over potential federal constitutional reform.At the heart of any reform are two major longstanding demands that will have to be addressed. TheCatalan government wants a new fiscal settlement and for Catalonia to be recognised as a distinctnation within Spain. These reforms can be achieved through a revision of Catalonia’s statute ofautonomy and would need to be ratified in a referendum by Catalan voters.National recognition would represent an acknowledgement of Catalans’ sovereignty and their “right todecide” their constitutional future – albeit within the parameters set by the Spanish constitution. Areferendum on a new statute could also open the door to a democratic option on independence.However, at this point, that’s unlikely to happen. The main difficulty will be to ensure this new statutecan’t be overturned by future judicial challenges that may water it down.A narrow chance for successThe deal brokered to support the socialist minority government is still fresh and there isn’t a hugeamount of trust between the parties. There’s even some lingering hostility. So while there is a chance16/12/2019 What a new government in Spain means for Cataloniahttps://theconversation.com/what-a-new-government-in-spain-means-for-catalonia-97724 4/4Spain Europe Catalonia Spanish politics Catalan independence Mariano Rajoy Pedro SánchezCatalan referendum Global perspectives Catalonia independenceto solve the conflict with Catalonia, it’s narrow. The deal may yet break down.But if parties on all sides are prepared to listen to divergent political views – and if Sanchez’s partycan show creative spirit – there is hope that a political change in Spain could bring about aconstructive dialogue. That, in time, could form the basis of a renewed relationship between Cataloniaand Spain.También lepodríainteresarSpain’s prime minister loses no-confidence vote: what next?Catalonia’s snap election: how to understand a confusing resultArrest of Carles Puigdemont closes another chapter in Catalonia’s bid for independenceCatalonia declares independence – and Spain enters uncharted territory

What a new government in Spain means for Catalonia

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What a new government in Spain means for Catalonia

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