The Probability Conflation: A Reply

Abstract

We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory). More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.Comment: Accepted, International Journal of Forecastin