The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is a policy-based protocol, which enables Autonomous Systems (ASes) to independently define their routing policies with little or no global coordination. AS-level topology and AS-level paths inference have been long-standing problems for the past two decades, yet, an important question remains open: "which elements of Internet routing affect the AS-path inference accuracy and how much do they contribute to the error?". In this work, we: (1) identify the confounding factors behind Internet routing modeling, and (2) quantify their contribution on the inference error. Our results indicate that by solving the first-hop inference problem, we can increase the exact-path score from 33.6% to 84.1%, and, by taking geolocation into consideration, we can refine the accuracy up to 94.6%
