DuPaul, William

Kirkley, James

English

College of William & Mary: W&M Publish

W&M ScholarWorks Reports 4-1-1990 Short-Run Situation Outlook: Mid-Atlantic Sea Scallops James Kirkley Virginia Institute of Marine Science William DuPaul Virginia Institute of Marine Scinece Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wm.edu/reports  Part of the Aquaculture and Fisheries Commons Recommended Citation Kirkley, J., & DuPaul, W. (1990) Short-Run Situation Outlook: Mid-Atlantic Sea Scallops. Marine Resource Advisory No. 36. Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.21220/m2-qm3d-sw07 This Report is brought to you for free and open access by W&M ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Reports by an authorized administrator of W&M ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact scholarworks@wm.edu. NO. 36 VIRGINIA SEA GRANT MARINE ADVISORY SERVICES ATVIMSIWILLIAM & MARY APRII.1990 Short-Run Situation Outlook: Mid-Atlantic Sea Scallops James Kirkley Willia; :1. DuPaul Since April 1987, sea scallop vessels in the mid-Atlantic have provided shellstock samples from the last tow of their trip to scien-tists at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary. These samples have provided the basis: (1) to deter-mine that scallops in the mid-Atlantic spawn twice per year, (2) to determine the relatlon-ships between shell size and meat weight ac-cording to season and location and (3) to allow us to make short-term predictions based upon current information provided by scallop samples. In the last three months of 1989, a com-bination of factors created problems for com-mercial harvesters of sea scallops. Scallop prices declined, fuel prices increased and there was a decrease in the abundance ofhar-vestable scallops (Figure 1). More important-ly, however, was an unprecedented decline in meat yields for all sizes of scallops (Figure 2). This major decline followed a continual · deterioration of meat yields noted since late summer 1989. -During the first three months of 1990, there were dramatic changes in resource con-ditions. These changes, though, were favorable to industry. Following normal seasonal patterns, there was an abnormally large increase in meat yields between B A s K E T s p E R H 0 u R Figurel Actual and Forecasted Baskets of Scallops Caught Per Hour, 10/89-12/90 10 8 6 4 2 0 April to December Catch Per Hour is Projected BBBe~ on Model .,.,/····tz. ... ,., Optimistic / Yt. Forecast i \)!,-··"'-. \ ·v.. ........ -Point I :*. k' '•tz. .• •.)\ Catastrophic \'k .. _. Forecast A ··*···t,, ··• OND J FMAMJJ A SOND I 198s I 1990 January and March. For example, scallops be-tween 3.25 and 3.50 inches in December 1989 yielded 55 meats per pound (MPP). The same size scallops yielded 36 and 37 MPP in February and March 1990. Similarly, scal-lops between 3. 75 and 4.00 inches yielded 37 Figure 2 Size Distribution of Sea Scallops From Survey Data 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 SIZE COMPOSITION(%) AVERAGE COUNT 42.83 OCTOBER 1989 <71 71-76 77-82 83-89 90-95 96-102103-108109-114 >114 SHELL HEIGHT INTERVAI.S SIZE COMPOSITION(%) AVERAGE COUNT 37.82 JANUARY 1990 <71 71-76 77-82 83-89 90-95 96-102103-108109-lH >114 SHELL HEIGHT INTERVALS SIZE COMPOSITION(%) 35.--~::....:...:..::..C-..~~---'-'-~~~~~---, 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 AVERAGE COUNT 40.27 NOVEMBER 1989 <71 71-76 77-82 83-89 90-95 00.102103-108109-11' >114 SHELL HEIGHT INTERVALS SIZE COMPOSITION(%) 35 ,......;.;.;;........;;..;;.;;;;;_;;_;;.;;;;.'---;..;.;..'--~~~~~-, 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 AVERAGE COUNT 39.03 FEBRUARY 1990 SHELL HEIGHT INTERVALS 30 25 20 15 10 5 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 SIZE COMPOSITION(%) AVERAGE COUNT 51.04 DECEMBER 1989 71-76 77-82 83-89 90-95 96-10'2103-108109-114 >lH SHELL HEIGHT INTERVALS SIZE COMPOSITION(%) AVERAGE COUNT 37.01 MARCH 1990 <'l1•<2.76IN 71-'76• 2.75-S.OOIN 77-82- 3.00-3.251N 83-89 • 3.25-8.50 IN 90-96•3.50-3.76IN 96-102- 3.76-4.00lN 1()3.108- 4.00-4.2.&IN 108-114 .. 4.24-4.50IN >114->4.60 <71 71-76 7Nl2 83-89 90-95 00.102103-108109-lH >1H SHELL HEIGHT INTERVALS MPP in December; the average. count for the same size scallops was 25 MPP in March 1990. During the October-March period, there was also considerable change in the size com-position of scallops. Relative abundance of all size scallops appeared evenly distributed in the last quarter of 1989 (Figure 3). By March 1990, however, there was a disproportionately large distribution of scallops between 3 and 3.5 inches. More importantly, these small scallops had extremely hlgh yields or low meat counts relative to counts of previous years. Additional available information sug-gests substantial recruitment (addition of scal-lops to harvestable stock) between January and March in the mid-Atlantic region. During the same period, it is also evident that the relative availability of large sized scallops had declined considerably. This indicates that the commercial scallop fleet is benefiting greatly from scallops between 3 and 3.5 inches in size. It is quite evident thatthe circumstan-ces over the past six months have been un-usual. These observations coupled with data collected over the past three years allow us to make some predictions that may be important for industry to consider. M E A T s p E R p 0 u N D 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Figure3 Sea Scallop Meat Count From Survey Data, 10/89-6/90 .... ····'\ __ .... .f' \ 3.25-3.50 Inches Interval and Point Projections April to June \ Regulated 33 MPP \ Regulated 30 MPP .. ~---+.. . ... -:::t::::::t::::::. 3.754.00 Inches ····-!'~-+--.. +··-"· OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 1989 1990 MONTH AND YEAR Spring spawning should be completed by May and scallop meat yields will decline short-ly after. This is characteristic of scallops in the mid-Atlantic area. The potential range of this decline is predicted for the months of April, May and June 1990 (Figure 3). At about the same time (1 May 1990), there will be a change in the regulated meat count from 33 MPP to 30 MPP. These two events, occur- · ing simultaneously, will undoubtedly make compliance more difficult. This situation is compounded by the ob-servation that the high abundance of 3.25 -3.5 inch scallops, which were useable for January through April, may be less abundant and lower in meat yield in the coming months. The abundance of 3 to 3.5 inch scal-lops appears to be large, however, it also ap-pears that the majority of fishing effort is focused on that group of scallops. Based on past data, a model was developed to estimate or forecast catch trends for 1990 (Figure 1). The .model forecasts: (1) what has the best chance of happening (point forecast), (2) what could be the best catch pos-sible (optimistic forecast) and (3) what the catch would be in the worst of times (catastrophic forecast). Based on this model, e, OilOeJll'flOil<S ~©[){]If~ a ~ru~sgg®~~ ~~~$ No.36 April 1990 Nancy Balcom ................•....... Editor Janet Walker .................... Typography Kay Stubblefield . . . . . . . . . , ........... Graphics Marine Resource Advisories are produced by the Virginia Sea Grant College Program Marine Advisory Services at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science of the College of William and Mary. Singie copies of this Advisory are available free. Write Sea Grant Communications, VIMS, Gloucester Point, VA 23062. Dr. Frank 0. Perkins . . , . . . . . . . , . . , , Dean/Director Virginia Institute of Marine Science Dr. William L. Rickards ................. . Director Virginia Sea Grant College Program Dr. William DuPaul ................... . Director Marine Advisory Services the important or critical time will be during July and August. What happens then will give us a better idea as to what the last part of 1990 will bring. For further information or if there are questions about the data and conclusions, please feel free to call either: Bill DuPaul - (804) 642-7164 or Jim Kirkley - (804) 642-7160 Acknowledgements W~ would like to extend our appreciation to the captai11s and crews of the following Seaford, VA-based vessels for supplying us with scallop samples during the last six nionths, making this analysis possible: FN Capt. Jake O'Neal; FN Capt. Marshall; FN Carolina Baby; FN Carolina Breeze; FIV Carolina Capes; FN Carolina Clipper; FN Carolina Dream; FN Carolina Girl II; FN Carolina Lady; FN Carolina Tarheel; FN Denny O'Neal; FN Mr. O'Neal; FN Nellie O'Neal; FN O'Neal's Pride; FN Pearl W. O'Neal; FN Stanley O'Neal; and FN V.J. O'Neal. 

Short-Run Situation Outlook: Mid-Atlantic Sea Scallops

https://scholarworks.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2311&amp;context=reports

Short-Run Situation Outlook: Mid-Atlantic Sea Scallops

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

College of William & Mary: W&M Publish