Feng, C.

Friedrichs, C.

Friedrichs, M.

Irby, I. D.

English

College of William & Mary: W&M Publish

W&M ScholarWorks Presentations 11-13-2013 Skill assessment of multiple models in the Chesapeake Bay I. D. Irby Virginia Institute of Marine Science M. Friedrichs Virginia Institute of Marine Science C. Feng C. Friedrichs Virginia Institute of Marine Science Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wm.edu/presentations  Part of the Environmental Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Irby, I. D.; Friedrichs, M.; Feng, C.; and Friedrichs, C.. "Skill assessment of multiple models in the Chesapeake Bay". 11-13-2013. Chesapeake Bay Program Tidal Monitoring and Analysis Workgroup, Annapolis, MD. This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by W&M ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Presentations by an authorized administrator of W&M ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact scholarworks@wm.edu. Skill	  Assessment	  of	  Mul0ple	  Models	  in	  Chesapeake	  Bay	  CERF	  -­‐	  2013	  	  Isaac	  (Ike)	  Irby,	  Marjorie	  Friedrichs,	  Yang	  Feng,	  Carl	  Friedrichs	  Virginia	  Ins0tute	  of	  Marine	  Science	  College	  of	  William	  &	  Mary	  	  	  Raleigh	  Hood,	  Jeremy	  Testa	  University	  of	  Maryland	  Center	  for	  Environmental	  Science	  Project	  Objec0ve 	  	  •  Sta0s0cally	  compare	  output	  from	  four	  Chesapeake	  Bay	  (estuarine)	  models:	  	  –  three	  ROMS	  models,	  varying	  biological	  complexity	  	  – biologically	  sophis0cated	  CBP	  regulatory	  model	  	  •  How	  well	  do	  they	  reproduce	  the	  mean	  and	  seasonal	  variability	  of:	  	  –  temperature,	  salinity,	  stra0fica0on,	  dissolved	  oxygen,	  chlorophyll-­‐a,	  and	  nitrate.	  CH3D-ICM!(CBP model)!ChesNENA! ChesROMS - BGC!ROMS - RCA!Nutrients !Simulated!!!N, P, Si!!C, N!!N!!N, P, Si!!Biogeochemical Sediment Component!!Yes!!No!!No!!Yes!Number of !Algal Groups!!!3!!1!!1!!2!Horizontal Resolution!!!0.25 - 1km2!!~ 1km2!!~ 1km2!!~ 1km2!Vertical !Grid!!!z: ~ 5ft!!σ: 20 layers!!σ: 20 layers!!σ: 20 layers!Models	  U0lized	  IH6IH5IH3H-3H-2H-1C-3C-2C-1OP-3OP-2OP-1ON-3OC-3H-1ACS-3WT8.3WT8.2WT8.1WT7.1WT6.1WT5.1WT4.1WT2.1WT1.1WE4.4WE4.3WE4.2WE4.1TF5.6TF5.5TF5.4TF5.3TF5.2TF4.4TF4.2TF3.3TF3.2TF3.1TF3.0TF2.4TF2.3 TF2.2TF1.7TF1.6TF1.5TF1.4TF1.3TF1.2TF1.0LE5.5LE5.4LE5.3LE5.2LE5.1LE4.3LE4.2LE4.1LE3.7LE3.6LE3.4LE3.3LE3.2LE3.1LE2.3LE2.2LE1.4LE1.3LE1.1ET9.1ET8.1ET7.1ET6.2ET6.1ET5.2ET5.1ET5.0ET4.2ET4.1ET3.1ET2.3ET2.2ET1.1EE3.5EE3.4EE3.2EE3.1EE3.0EE2.2EE2.1EE1.1CB8.1CB7.4CB7.3CB7.1CB6.3CB6.2CB6.1CB5.5CB5.4CB5.3CB5.2CB5.1CB4.4CB3.2CB3.1CB2.2CB2.1CB1.1CB1.0TF5.6ATF5.5ATF5.2ATF5.0JTF5.0ATF4.4ATF4.1ATF4.0PTF4.0MTF3.2ATF3.1WTF3.1ETF3.1CRET5.2RET5.1RET4.3RET4.2RET4.1RET3.2RET3.1RET2.4RET2.3RET2.2RET2.1RET1.1LE5.5BLE5.2SLE4.2SLE3.6NLE3.3AET10.1CB8.1ECB7.4NCB7.1NCB5.4WCB4.3WCB4.3ECB4.2W CB4.2ECB4.1WCB4.1ECB3.3CXFB1986XDJ9007XAK7810WIW0141WIL0013TRQ0146TRQ0088TOW0030SEN0008SAV0000RET5.2SRET4.3SRET3.1SPXT0972PXT0809POT2766POT2386POT1830POT1596POT1595POT1472POT1471POT1184POK0087PAT0285PAT0176NPA0165NBP0689NBP0534NBP0461NBP0326 NBP0103NBP0023MON0528MON0269MON0155MON0020MAT0078JON0184HOK0005GUN0476GUN0258FRG0018DER0015CON0180CON0005CAC0148CAC0031BPC0035BDK0000 ANT0366ANT0203IH4IH2IH1WT3.1TF2.1LE1.2ET2.1EE3.3CB7.2CB6.4WE4.2SWE4.2NTF3.1D TF3.1BTF3.1ALE5.5ALE5.2NLE4.3SLE4.3NLE4.2NLE3.6SLE3.2SLE3.2NCB7.3ECB7.2ECB7.1SCB5.1WCB4.3CCB4.2CCB4.1CCB3.3W CB3.3EXGG8251XCI4078WXT0001TF5.5ASTF5.5ANRET5.2NRET5.1ARET4.3NRET3.1NPIS0033NOM0007MNK0146MDR0028MAT0016GWN0115GUN0125GEO0009CJB0005CCM0069BXK0031ANT0044MARYLAND-0 5 10 15 20MilesDELAWAREVIRGINIAWEST  VIRGINIA!WBE1SBE5SBE4SBE3SBE2SBE1SBD4SBD1SBC1SBA1LAF1ELI3ELI2EBE2EBE1WBB05LFB01LFA01LE5.6ELE01ELD01EBB01EBE1-EELI1!!TWB06TWB05TWB04TWB03TWB02TWB01TUT01TTX27TPB01TOR01TNA01THR01TFS01TFC01TDU01PWC04PTB01PMS51PMS48PMS46PMS44PMS41PMS39PMS37PMS35PMS33PMS31PMS29PMS27PMS25PMS23PMS21PMS18PMS16PMS13PMS12PMS09PMS08PMS07PMS03PMS02KNG02KNG01ANA30ANA29ANA24ANA22ANA21ANA20ANA18ANA17ANA16ANA14ANA13 ANA12ANA10ANA09ANA07ANA04TFD01PMS11PMS10PMS05PMS01ANA27ANA26ANA25ANA23ANA19ANA15ANA11ANA08ANA06ANA05ANA03 ANA02ANA01AAG02AAG01TFB01TDA01 TCO06TCO01TBK01RCR09RCR07RCR04ANA0082RCR01RCM0111SMT13SMT12SMT11SMT10SMT09SMT08SMT07SMT06SMT05SMT04SMT03SMT02SMT01SMSMCSMT10BSMT10ASMNT14SMNT13SMNT12SMNT11SMNT10SMNT09SMNT08SMNT07SMNT06SMNT05SMNT04SMNT03SMNT02SMNT01SMNT09.5SeeSt. Mary'sInsetSeeElizabethInsetJames         RiverYork R.RappahannockRiverPotomacRiverNanticokeR.Patuxent   RiverChoptankRiverChester R.Patapsco R.Susquehanna R.See DCInsetPotomacSt. George Cr.St. Ma ry 's R.Chesapeake BayElizab eth R. Lafayette R.Eastern Br.Western Br.Souther n Br .0 1 2 3MilesElizabeth RiverInset0 1 2 3MilesSt. Mary's RiverInset0 1 2 3MilesWashington, DCInsetRiverPotomac R.LegendFall LineMaryland and VirginiaWater QualityMonitoring StationsCompare	  simula0ons	  at	  1 	  main	  stem	  sta0ons	  for	  ~16	  cruises	  in	  2004	  Unbiased RMSD"Bias"1"1"Overestimates"Observed Std Dev"Underestimates Observed Std Dev "Overestimates"Observed Mean"Underestimates"Observed Mean"Model skill same as skill of mean of observations"Model	  Skill	  Assessment	  via	  	  Target	  Diagrams	  CH3D - ICM!ChesNENA!ChesROMS - BGC!ROMS - RCA!Bottom Temperature"Bottom Salinity"Stratification"Bottom Dissolved Oxygen"Surface Chlorophyll"Surface Nitrate"!Bias%Unbiased%RMSD%11All#Sta'on#Average:#Combined#Seasonal#Temporal#and#Spa'al#Skill#Overall skill of all four models (temporal+spatial variability):  •  are highest in terms of Temperature •  are similar to each other in terms of T, S, stratification and DO •  are different in terms of chlorophyll and nitrate 39° N"38° N"37° N"Bias" Bias"Unbiased RMSD"Unbiased RMSD"CH3D - ICM! ChesNENA!ChesROMS - BGC! ROMS - RCA!1 111 1111Stra'fica'on#All models consistently underestimate both the mean and seasonal variability of stratification, particularly at the northern stations Skill for surface chlorophyll & nitrate varies significantly between models 39° N"38° N"37° N"Bias" Bias"Unbiased RMSD"Unbiased RMSD"CH3D - ICM! ChesNENA!ChesROMS - BGC!11 111111ROMS - RCA!39° N"38° N"37° N"Bias"Unbiased RMSD"Unbiased RMSD"CH3D - ICM! ChesNENA!ROMS - RCA!Bias"1111 11 11ChesROMS - BGC!Chlorophyll" Nitrate"Despite underestimation of stratification & varying performance between models for  chlorophyll and nitrate, models still reproduce mean and seasonal variability of DO  similarly well, particularly at southern stations CH3D - ICM! ChesNENA!ChesROMS - BGC! ROMS - RCA!39° N"38° N"37° N"1111111 1Bias"Unbiased RMSD"Bias"Unbiased RMSD"Bo;om#DO#Conclusions & Implications!•  Models with lower biological complexity and resolution achieve similar skill scores as CBP model in terms of seasonal variability along the main stem of Chesapeake for T, S, DO and stratification"à More confidence in CBP model predictions of seasonal variability, "à Models do not necessarily need to perform well in terms of stratification, chlorophyll, or nitrate in order to reproduce mean and seasonal variation of DO""•  All models reproduce bottom DO better than variables that are primary influences on DO (stratification, chlorophyll, nitrate)"à This is because seasonal DO variability is sensitive to "temperature (solubility effect), and the models reproduce temperature very well "à Modeled DO simulations may be very sensitive to any future increases in Bay temperature""Future Work: Similar analyses for interannual 25 year run""

Skill assessment of multiple models in the Chesapeake Bay

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Skill assessment of multiple models in the Chesapeake Bay

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