Hansen, Claus D.

Møberg, Rasmus Juul

English

    Aalborg UniversitetPaternal jobloss and unemployment and the labour market trajectories of their sons –a gender perspectiveHansen, Claus D.; Møberg, Rasmus JuulPublication date:2022Link to publication from Aalborg UniversityCitation for published version (APA):Hansen, C. D., & Møberg, R. J. (2022). Paternal jobloss and unemployment and the labour market trajectories oftheir sons – a gender perspective. Paper presented at Annual International Conference of the Society ForLongitudinal and Lifecourse Studies, Cleveland, Ohio, United States.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            - Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            - You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain            - You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal -Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at vbn@aub.aau.dk providing details, and we will remove access tothe work immediately and investigate your claim.Downloaded from vbn.aau.dk on: February 14, 2023(Unemployed) Fathersand SonsA gender perspective on the long-term consequences of paternaljobloss and unemploymenton labour markettrajectoriesClaus D. Hansen & Rasmus Juul MøbergDepartment of Sociology and Social WorkAalborg University, DenmarkPresentation at 11th SLLS ConferenceCase Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OhioOctober 24th 2022BackgroundParental job loss and unemploymentParental job loss and unemployment impacts children in a variety of ways(Brand, 2015) and through multiple causal pathways (Andersen, 2013) both pecuniary and non-pecuniary (Young 2012).In this paper, we focus mainly on the non-pecuniary effects of job lossand unemployment for children such as the impact on their self-conceptand the consequences for their educational and labour markettrajectories.Few explicit gender specific analyses on this topic – the economiclitterature often conflates parental with either paternal or maternalunemployment. While there are generic consequences of jobloss and unemploymentregardless of which parent experiences it, the assumption behind thispaper is that there are also important gender specific consequences.BackgroundPaternal unemployment in a gender perspectivePaid work is very important for men’s identity(e.g. Demantas & Myers, 2015) -> unemploymentconstitutes a threat not only to the livelihood of the family but to the self-concept of the fatherand to the masculinity ideals that are prevalentamong both higher- and lower-educated men (e.g. Bloksgaard et. al., 2015) Jimenez & Walkerdine (2011) show how feelings of shame and embarrasment are shaping the relationship between fathers and sons and theirexperiences of job loss and unemployment.Unemployment may not be equally ‘harmful’ to all men -> theories of intersectionality suggests thatmultiple masculinities exists (e.g. Connell, 1995; Christensen & Jensen, 2014) for which views of work and unemployment may divergeBackgroundEducational and labour market trajectoriesExisting studies of the impact of parental job loss and unemployment often focus on single educational events (e.g. Lindemann & Gangl 2019; 2020) or labour market outcomes based on a single time point or accumulated over a shorter period (e.g. Mörk, Sjögren & Svaleryd 2020). If parental job loss and unemployment is thought to impact children in a variety of ways, it becomes crucial to study transitions between compulsory school, secondary and tertiary education and the labour market as a period that focus on the ‘entire sequence of changes in labour market as well as educational status’ (cf. Brzinsky-Fay 2007).For this reason, we use sequence analysis to model educational and labour markettrajectories from ages 16 to 36. BackgroundPaternal unemployment - the case of DenmarkEarlier studies show ‘remarkable small adverseconsequences of parental unemployment in Nordic countries’ (Lindemann & Gangl, 2020) -> explained by two institutional mechanisms(opportunity and insurance) that reduces the pecuniary consequences of job loss and unemployment.Universal free education and state grants for students + relatively generous unemploymentbenefits -> low perceived cost of education evenfor children whose fathers had precarious labourmarket trajectoriesDenmark as a least likely case -> if an association exists here despite this institutional context an association will likely be even greater in othercontexts where the institutional mechanisms doesnot work this way.Theoretical estimandsThe ‘theoretical estimand’ (Lundberg, Johnson & Stewart, 2021) of the paper can be formulated like this:RQ1: Difference in whether son i would have a certain type of labour market trajectory if his father had a long spell of unemployment during his formative years vs. his father having stable labour market participation during his formative years.RQ2: Difference in whether son i would have a certain type of labour market trajectory if his father who had a long spell of unemployment during his formative years had a traditional form of masculinity vs. his father not having a traditional form of masculinityThe target population for whom we estimate RQ1 is sons (born in 1983 ) of fathers, which means that we exclude girls as well as boys without information about their legal father. We compare the labour market trajectories of boys whose fathers did or did not experience unemployment in their formative years, i.e., when the boys was 10-14 years of age.The target population for whom we estimate RQ2 is sons (born in 1983) of fathers who experienced unemployment in their formative years while working in male dominated occupations. We compare the labour market trajectories of the former boys with boys whose fathers experienced unemployment while working in female dominated occupations. In order to reduce the risk that the differences in unemployment between male and female dominated occupations is caused by differences in educational status of the fathers, we narrow the target population to be sons of unskilled fathers.Empirical estimandsWe estimate the theoretical estimands by four different means:1. We compare the state distribution plots of the comparisongroups to each other in order to examine to what extent the trajectories diverge from each other.2. We construct a typology of sequences and compare the extentto which the comparison groups tend to be members of the different types.3. We calculate the mean duration in each of the seven statespaces for the comparison groups and the differeny types in order to examine to what extent the groups spend differentamounts of time in the state spaces.4. We calculate the turbulence of the labour market trajectoriesof the comparison groups in order to see whether the boys with unemployed fathers have more turbulent trajectories.Methods, data, statisticsInformation on labour market participation, educational events and public transfer payments from all Danish adults born in 1983 (n=54,575) were derived from three population registers at Statistics Denmark. In this analysis, only young men (n=26,430) were included in order to study the impact of paternal job loss and unemployment on their trajectories. In order to take into account the influence of paternal education for educational choices, we focus on the boys of unskilled fathers (n = 6,755).The information was linked and coded in two different ways. For the basic analyses 7 distinct state spaces on a monthly basis from age 16 to age 36 (January 1999 to December 2019) yielding sequences of 252 months. In the extended coding, the employment state space was differentiated to 10 trades and the educational state spaces were reduced to two. Information on paternal unemployment was derived from the IDA register for the period 1993-1997, i.e. when the boys were age 10-14. This age period was chosen because Brand (2015) suggests that during adolescence the children of unemployed parents becomes conscious of the possible stigma associated with job loss and unemployment. State spacesBasic coding1. Basic education2. Upper secondary education3. Vocational training4. Tertiary education5. Other education6. Employed7. Outside labour marketExtended coding1. Basic/Upper secondary education/Tertiary education2. Vocational training3. Employed: Agriculture4. Employed: Mining/Manufacturing5. Employed: Construction6. Employed: Wholesale and retail7. Employed: Transport8. Employed: Accomodation and food service9. Employed: Information and communication10. Employed: Financial service11. Employed: Legal and accounting12. Employed: Public administration13. Employed: Education14. Employed: Health services15. Employed: Other services16. Outside labour marketMethods, data, statisticsCluster analysis (using Wards distance) on the sequences identified distinct groups of adolescents with similar labour market trajectories. The number of clusters were determined by ASW and HC partitioning measures following the procedure suggested by Studer (2021). These indices suggested partitioning the sequences into 2-4 clusters depending on the subgroups analysed. Multinomial regression was used to examine the association between paternal unemployment and cluster membership.In order to evaluate the nature of the state sequences and the degree to which they are more complex or turbulent we employ Elzinga & Liefbroer’s(2007) measure of turbulence T in its normalized version (suggested by Ritschard 2021). The level of turbulence was subsequently used as the outcome in a linear regression including paternal unemployment as well as paternal income. The TraMineR package was used to generate and analyse the sequences (Gabadinho et. al., 2011).ResultsState distribution plots by father’sunemploymentstatusDurations in states (months) by father’s unemployment statusNo unemp High unemp Low unemp No infoCompulsory 15 14 15 15Secondary Ed 11 7 8 7Vocational Training 24 23 26 18Higher Ed 13 7 8 7Education, oth 11 13 11 14Employed 140 128 137 113Outside labour market 38 60 47 78N 3,705 1,513 847 685ResultsMean duration in state spaces (months) by father’soccupation and unemployment statusMale dominated Female dominatedNo unempLow unempHigh unemp No unempLow unempHigh unempCompulsory 15 15 14 15 13 14Secondary Ed 10 6 5 14 15 10Vocational Training 25 28 25 22 18 21Higher Ed 10 6 5 18 17 9Education, oth 11 10 12 13 19 16Employed 141 141 129 130 128 128Outside labour market 41 46 61 40 42 55N 853 355 403 179 54 78ResultsTurbulence T in labour market trajectories by paternal unemployment statusAll Male dominated Female dominated(1) (2) (3)High paternalunemployment 1.341*** 1.409*** 1.047(0.226) (0.477) (0.971)Low paternalunemployment 0.935*** 1.027** 2.947***(0.265) (0.469) (1.029)Mean wage -0.033*** -0.024 0.016(0.010) (0.024) (0.053)Constant 16.139*** 16.193*** 14.643***(0.286) (0.658) (1.216)Observations 6,065 1,611 311Adjusted R2 0.018 0.007 0.021Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01No paternal unemployment is reference categoryAdjusted for father’s job categoryConclusionThe labour market trajectories of sons with unemployed, unskilled fathers diverges to some extent from the labour markettrajectories of sons of unskilled fathers with no unemployment at all.They spend more time outside the labourmarket themselves and to a lesser extentembark on trajectories involving highereducation. In addition, the trajectories aremore turbulent (i.e. involves more transitions and greater diversity in the length of spells).Some differences between boys with fathersin male dominated and female dominatedoccupations were found: more upper secondary and higher education and lessturbulent trajectories -> consistent with gender specific effects of paternalunemployment?Thank you for your attention!Questions/comments: clausdh@socsci.aau.dk

Paternal jobloss and unemployment and the labour market trajectories of their sons – a gender perspective

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Paternal jobloss and unemployment and the labour market trajectories of their sons – a gender perspective

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