The Application of the Cox Proportional Hazard Model to Research the Duration of "Stage Life" of the Opera Works

Abstract

The analysis of the history of opera theaters repertoires indicates, there are opera works that after some time of the presence in the repertoire of theaters for various reasons have been removed. Thus, there is the analogy with the occurrence of censored observations (opera works, which have stood the test of time), and the complete observations (opera works, which ended their "stage life"). Accordingly, the duration of stage life of opera works can be analyzed by the methods used in the survival analysis. The methodes used in survival analysis enable the evaluation of the impact of the some features of opera works such as vocal and instrumental values, the type of opera, musical period in which opera work was created or the language of the libretto on the timelessness of the music piece. The aim of this paper is to estimate the chances of "death stage" of the opera works on the basis of the results of the Cox regression model. The study used data from the electronic archive of the Metropolitan Opera in New York