The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between the former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” scenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-type simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except i n the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be s ignificant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries
