Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts

Abstract

In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50 percent during 1901 to 2015 and is expected to increase by 50 to 200 percent under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, e.g, SSP2 4.5. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and is a result of a westward expansion of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean warm pool. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harvesting the increased rainfall would lead to a significant increase in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region