Halsnæs, K.

Online Research Database In Technology

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EU, energien og den globale klimapolitik. Abstract from Temakonference om energi- ogklimapolitik mellem EU og verden, København (DK), .EU, Energy, and Global Climate ChangeKirsten HalsnæsMajor IPCC Findings• Results from IPCC AR4 Mitigation Policies based on review of  1000’s of  studies.• Focus on technical and economic studies of mitigation policies globally and regionally and in different sectors.• Various policy options have been identified, and GHG emission growth can be offset with low economic costs.• Flexibility mechanisms are very important incl. global cooperation, emission  trading, JI and CDM projects, and multiple gasses and sectors.• Many new international stabilisation studies are available, low costs for some targets if full emission trading and international collaboration is assumed.• Large concensus about mitigation cost estimates incl. USA, EU, China, India and other DC’s. • But……..Large uncertainty about the costs of 2 degree target despite this is strongly recommended by climatologists and scientists. 5+90 to +1402060 - 20904.9 – 6.1855 – 11309+25 to +852050 - 20804.0 – 4.9710 – 855118+10 to +602020 - 20603.2 – 4.0590 – 71021-30 to +52010 - 20302.8 – 3.2535 – 59018-60 to -302000 - 20202.4 – 2.8490 – 5356-85 to -502000 - 20152.0 – 2.4445 – 490# studiesCO2 reduction in 2050 compared to 2000Year CO2 needs to peakGlobal mean temp. increase at equilibrium (ºC)Stab level (ppm CO2-eq)The growth of CO2 emissions from developing countriesIPCCPotential emission reductions from additional hydro, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, solar at <US$ 50 /tCO2The share of renewables in the total electricity supply can rise from 18% in 2005 to 30 – 35% by 2030 (at carbon price < US$50/tCO2eq). IPCCPotential emission reductions from additional CCS in new coal and gas plants at <US$ 50 /tCO2Fossil fuel share of electricity generation without CCS drops to < 50% of total supply by 2030 (at carbon price < US$50/tCO2eq).Energy Supply Conclusions• Net additional investments required to keep 2030 at 2005 level are about 5-10% (on the top 20 trillion $ until 2030)• Energy efficiency improvements (30% with negative costs in building sector).• Renewable energy can increase from 18%in 2005, to 30-35% in 2030 (with 50$ carbon price).• Wind energy 7% of global electricity production in 2030 (with 30$ carbon price).• Price volatility can support renewable energy but also enhance coal use.• Nuclear power can increase from 16% in 2005 to 18% in 2030.• CCS can make an important contribution.How Far are We with the Cost Estimates• Low costs for targets up to around 550 ppm or 2.5-3 degree.• Few studies that meet 2 degree targets.• 2 degree target requires that emissions in 2050 should be up to 80% below 2000 level.• Wide range of technical options with low costs, 10% with negative costs. • Low cost options include energy efficiency improvements that can be difficult to implement.• Major GHG emission reductions will have to take place in DC’s due to their large share of future global GHG’s.CO2 Emissions from Energy 1990-2030, IEA WEO 20060246810121990 2004 2015 2030YearTotal CO2 Emissions (bn ton)USACanada &MexicoEuropePacificTrans.econ.ChinaIndiaOther AsianStabilisation Scenario for India050010001500200025001990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Carbon CaptureEnergy EfficiencyWindSolarBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilIndia 550 ppmv emission550 PPMV 400800122016Different Perspectives on Post 2012• Annex 1 and non Annex 1 with targets based on GDP intensity, per capita, baseline, or other principles.• Initiative by 10 largest emitters.• Climate change moves from ministry of Environment to Finance, Development and Industry/Energy.• New policy perspectives:– Expand the carbon market.– Technology driven initiatives.• EU policy dilemma:– Internal burden sharing to start on renewable and emission targets.– Little progress with emission reductions.– Industry not ready to carry the burden.– Renewable energy push.– Internal consensus moves attention away from DC collaboration (block policy a straight jacket).– No international support to EU stabilisation target.EU Climate and Energy Perspectives• Climate-Energy conclusions:– Low costs for targets up to around 550 ppm or 2.5-3 degree.– Few studies that meet 2 degree target.– 2 degree target requires that emissions in 2050 should be up to 80% below 2000 level - It is time to do the homework.– Wide range of technical options with low costs, 10% with negative costs. Low cost options include energy efficiency improvements that can be difficult to implement. • EU energy and climate policies should have an international perspective: High priority to DC partnerships. • Start constructive dialog with US, Canada, Japan, and Australia.• Climate-energy policies should be addressed in the context of sustainable development.

EU, energien og den globale klimapolitik

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EU, energien og den globale klimapolitik

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