Bhaskar, Kalyan

Dhar, Subash

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 17, 2017Electric Vehicle Scenarios for IndiaShukla, Priyadarshi R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, KalyanPublication date:2014Link back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Shukla, P. R., Dhar, S., & Bhaskar, K. (2014). Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India [Sound/Visual production(digital)]. Development and Mitigation Forum, Cape Town, South Africa, 27/01/2014Development and Mitigation Forum 27 January2014 Cape Town, South Africa Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India   Priyadarshi R Shukla Subash Dhar Kalyan Bhaskar Presentation Agenda 1. Low Carbon National Transport Modeling Assessment • Model System  • Scenarios Architecture 2. National Passenger Transport Demand 3. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenario • Energy Demand • CO2 Emission Mitigation • Air Quality Co-benefits 4. Electric Vehicle (EV) Scenarios 5. Conclusions DATABASES - Socio  Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts AIM CGE Model ANSWER - MARKAL Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model End Use Demand  Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB) DATABASES End Use Demand  Model Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment AIM CGE/GCAM-IIM ANSWER- RKAL del AIM ExSS End-Use Demand Model Scenario Database Soft-Linked Integrated Model System (SLIM) Transport Demand Model Transport Database Transport Model Soft-Linked Integrated Model System Sustainable Transport Indicators Database Scenario Paradigm Transport Scenarios Baseline Scenario GDP Growth rate -8% (2007-2032)  Sustainable Low Carbon Transport GDP Growth rate -8% (2007-2032)  Avoid  Coal by wire Urban Planning  Penetration of ICT technologies  Shift Investment in Mass transit Systems Greater use of Pipelines   Improve  Vehicle Efficiency Improvement Penetration of Electric Vehicles Transport Scenarios Architecture Base (BAU) GDP – 8% CAGR CO2 – 3.6 deg C Conventional Low Carbon Scenario GDP ~ 8% CAGR CO2 – 2 deg C Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario GDP  - Pegged to 8% CAGR CO2 – 2 deg C  Sustainable Mobility i. Public Transport  ii. NMT iii. Urban Design iv. High speed rail   Sustainable Technologies i. Electric Vehicles ii. Fuel Economy  iii. ICT - Navigation    Sustainable Fuels i. Bio-fuels ii.  CNG iii. Clean Electricity  Sustainable Logistics i. Dedicated Rail Corridors ii. Coal by wire iii. Regional Pipelines Changes due to price of carbon Changes due to targeted strategies + a carbon budget equivalent to conventional scenario Passenger Freight Passenger & Freight Sustainable Mobility Storyline  Non-Motorized Transport Pipe Transport Coal-by-wire  -  1.0  2.0  3.0  4.0  5.0  6.0  7.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (lit gasoline / 100 km) BAU  Sustainable Low Carbon  Scenario Fuel Economy (Cars) National Passenger Transport Demand in Scenarios Passenger Transport Demand 05000100001500020000250002010 2020 2030 2040 2050Bpkm  BAU SLCS05000100001500020000250002010 2020 2030 2040 2050Bpkm BAU SLCSBAU - Passenger Transport Demand BAU - Road Passenger Transport Demand Modal Share of Passenger Transport 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050AirRailwaysPublic TransportFour WheelerThree wheelerTwo Wheeler0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050BAU Modal Share Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario  Modal Share Share in Road Passanger Transport 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Two WheelerThree wheelerFour WheelerPublic Transport0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050BAU Road Transport Share Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario Road Transport Share Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenario  Results from Modeling Assessment Low Carbon Electricity Transition 0204060801001201402010 2020 2030 2040 2050US$/ tons Carbon Price Trajectory  2OC Stabilization Scenario BAU Scenario Energy Mix for Transport 0501001502002503003502010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050MtOe 2OC Stabilization Oil Electricity CNG Hydrogen Jet fuel Biofuel0501001502002503003502010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050MToe BAU Oil Electricity CNG Hydrogen Jet fuel BiofuelTransport Fuel Mix in 2050 OiL 64% Jetfuel 9% Biofuel 3% CNG 16% Electricity 8% Hydrogen 0% BAU OiL 30% Jetfuel 8% Biofuel 23% CNG 19% Electricity 19% Hydrogen 1% 2OC Scenario Transport Energy : 299 Mtoe Transport: 169 Mtoe Contribution to CO2 Mitigation in Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenario  010020030040050060070080090010002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050CO2 Emissions (MTCO2) Electric Mobility + ElectriccleaningFuel SwitchingFuel EconomyShiftDemand ReductionResidual EmissionsCO2  Emissions- Transport  02004006008001000201020152020202520302035204020452050CO2 Emissions  (Million tco2) BAU Electricity CNG Jet Fuel OIL020040060080010002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050CO2 Emissions  (Million tco2) Sustainable LCT Oil Jet Fuel CNG ElectricityAir Quality Co-benefit 010002000300040005000600070002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Ktonnes SOX BASE SLCT050010001500200025003000350040002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Ktonnes NOX 2OC Electric Vehicle Scenarios Electric Vehicles (EV) Scenarios EV Scenarios Business-as Usual (BAU) National EV Policies (EV) EV plus 2OC Target (EV_LCS) Future socio economic development along the conventional path: mirrors resource intensive path of developed countries   Global 2OC climate stabilization target leads to high carbon price; this lowers carbon content of generated electricity  Governments recognize multiple co-benefits of EVs (urban air quality; energy security etc.) and push their penetration Scenarios Description: EV & EV_LCS Electric Vehicle Scenario (EV): Assumptions • Domestic policy supports: Direct capital subsidy,  improved charging infrastructure, dedicated lanes, incentives for R&D in power train, batteries and smart grid technologies, quotas for EVs in urban public & goods transport • Battery costs comes down to half of current costs in next 10-15 years: driven by advancements in battery technologies, improvements in battery capacities,  declining component costs, and economies of scale in production • Improved batteries with higher energy density will also help reduce  weight of batteries: further pushing down EVs costs • Limited range per charge put constraints on EVs penetration for urban transportation  Electric Vehicle plus 2OC Scenario (EV_LCS): Assumptions • Global 450 ppmv CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization target • Carbon Price rise: from US$ 46/tonne CO2 in 2020 to US$ 200/tonne CO2 in 2050 (based on outputs from IMAGE and MESSAGE models) EV Share in Personal Motorised Transport EV Share in Personal Motorised Transport Share of EV for Public transport (*) Excludes Demand for Passenger Transport met by Railways. CO2 emissions: BAU, EV, EV_LCS 02004006008001,0001,2002010 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2 Emissions  from  Transport Sector  (Million tCO2) BAU EV EV LCSConclusions • Under global 2OC stabilization policy, in 2050, India’s: – Transport sector would mitigate 66% of BAU emissions – Transport Emissions will still be 60% above 2010 emissions • The low carbon transition of transport sector is accompanied by sizable shift in fuels and technologies • Low carbon transport transition shall deliver Air Quality and Energy Security co-benefits • Electric Vehicles (EV) by themselves do not contribute to CO2 mitigation; they may even increase emissions • Under global 2OC stabilization policy, in India, EV contribute sizable mitigation, nearly 38% to the BAU transport emissions in 2050 • Early penetration of EV in India would come through 2-wheelers; this would create infrastructures that would facilitate larger vehicles.   Thank You  Low Carbon Transport Project Website :  www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon    

Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India

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Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India

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