'Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford'
Abstract
Ensembles of 2100 climate simulations were generated using the HadAM4P Atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (AGCM) from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. Three scenarios (with 700 simulations each) were used: historical (2006-16), 1.5ºC and 2ºC.
The simulations output were mean temperatures with a 6 hours timestep and a horizontal resolution of 0.833 longitude and 0.556 latitude. Simulations took place within climateprediction.net (CPDN) climate simulation which uses the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) framework. Biases in simulated temperature data were identified and corrected through statistical downscaling using a quantile Mapping approach.
Cooling degree days (CDDS) were calculated for the ensemble members (700 runs per scenario) using 18ºC temperature threshold. Then, annual mean CDDs and standard deviation per coordinate was obtained for the 1.5ºC and 2ºC scenarios
