Development of Models for Assessing a Driver's Failure­free Operation in a Transportation System Under Conditions of Traffic Congestion

Abstract

This paper has considered the task on determining a driver's failure-free operation in the transportation system of a city taking into account traffic jams. A driver's time of stay in traffic jams leads to an increase in his/her psycho-emotional condition, an increase in the level of fatigue, and, therefore, to a decrease in failure-free operation. The level of a driver's failure-free operation directly affects road safety. The driver's failure-free operation within the elements of a transport system determines the probability of a traffic accident, which depends not only on the network parameters and traffic flows but, first of all, on the response time of the driver.We have developed models for assessing a driver's failure-free operation along the sections of a transport network and transport nodal points taking into account traffic jams. They have made it possible to assess the probability of a traffic accident for the average driver. The models take into consideration the impact of a traffic jam by changing the response time of a driver, which is a function of changing the level of fatigue.To determine by how many times the probability of a traffic accident for the average driver along the sections of a transport network and in traffic nodes with a traffic jam exceeds the same probability along the same elements of the transport system without traffic jams, we considered the ratio of the probabilities.The adequacy of the models has been verified by comparing the ratio of the probabilities of a traffic accident with the traffic jam along the sections of a transport network and without it to the corresponding ratio of the number of traffic accidents along the same sections of a transport network and at intersections.The developed models that take into account traffic jams for assessing a driver's failure-free operation along the elements of a transport network make it possible to compare and evaluate various project solutions to improve road safet