Voters typically want their elected representatives to have roots in their local area, yet a large number of British MPs lack close ties with their constituency. Drawing on new research, Rob Gandy, Philip Cowley and Scott Foster illustrate trends in localism among MPs between the 2010 and 2019 general elections

Cowley, Philip

Foster, Scott

Gandy, Robert J.

English

LSE Research Online

Trends in region-based localism amongMPs: 2010-2019Voters typically want their elected representatives tohave roots in their local area, yet a large number of British MPs lack close ties with theirconstituency. Drawing on new research, Rob Gandy, Philip Cowley and Scott Fosterillustrate trends in localism among MPs between the 2010 and 2019 general elections.For British MPs, being ‘local’ is generally recognised as having some electoraladvantage because voters want their elected representatives to be local to theirconstituency. The UK has the fewest parliamentarians with local roots compared to otherEuropean countries. Yet the practice of ‘parachuting’ candidates into (seemingly) safeseats continues; as witnessed by the Wakefield Labour Party executive committeewalking out of the hustings and senior Conservative Party officials ordering theircandidate in the North Shropshire by-election not to speak to the media because heknew so little about the area.The definition of ‘local’ is open to multiple definitions: place of birth; schooling;residence; place of employment; and even dynastic links where parents or grandparentsheld a seat. In a new study, we assess the regional roots of British MPs using place ofbirth, which has the advantage that it cannot be altered to make a candidate appearmore electorally appealing.We base our study on the twelve standard regions and nations, analysing whether acandidate was born in the same region as their constituency (which is reasonable giventhe chances of someone being able to represent the exact constituency in which theywere born is dependent upon how ‘safe’ the seat is and whether a person’s politicscoincide with that of the incumbent party). The goal was not to argue for a particulardefinition of ‘local’, but to analyse the extent to which British MPs are becoming more orless local over time and to try to tease out what is driving that change. Therefore, thePage 1 of 6Permalink: undefinedDate originally posted: undefinedDate PDF generated: 14/11/2022precise definition used matters less than the trends over time.Our results cover the period 2010-2019, which was politically volatile, seeing: aConservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010; the subsequent electoralcollapse of the Liberal Democrats; the Scottish independence referendum and rise of theScottish National Party; the rise of UKIP and the Brexit referendum; the resultantnegotiations with the EU and the emergence of a political divide based on ‘Leave’ and‘Remain’.There were historically high numbers of MPs switching parties during this period,especially after 2017, as well as significant changes in the make-up of the House ofCommons. The most dramatic were the increased number of SNP MPs, the fall in thenumber of Liberal Democrats in 2015, and the collapse in the number of Labour MPs in2019. These electoral shifts affected the degree to which British MPs were local acrossthe decade, with clear increases in the proportion of British MPs with local roots. Therewere changes at each election, with newer cohorts of MPs being noticeably more localthan the MPs they replaced.Main resultsTables 1-3 below show the percentage of MPs who represent a constituency in theregion of their birth. Table 1 focuses on the main political parties and the sex of the MPs.It is seen that between 2010 and 2019 the overall figure for local MPs rose by sevenpercentage points, with more than half of British MPs being local by 2019. In all fourelections, Labour had a greater percentage of local MPs compared to the Conservatives,although both major parties saw roughly equal rises in the percentage of local MPs overthe decade.The largest increase in local MPs was for the other parties, but this was mainly due tothe rise of the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, and the Liberal Democratlosses in 2015. There was little difference between the sexes: female MPs are marginallymore local than male MPs, but by 2019 just over half of MPs of both sexes were local. Itwas found that a little over half of male Labour MPs were local throughout the period,compared to an increase from 48% to 60% for their female counterparts. (At the sametime women moved from 32% of Labour MPs to 51%). For the Conservatives thepercentage of local MPs was very similar for both sexes throughout.Page 2 of 6Permalink: undefinedDate originally posted: undefinedDate PDF generated: 14/11/2022Table 1: MPs with regional connections, by party and sex, 2010-2019Table 2 examines the turnover of MPs. In 2015, 65% of new MPs were local, but thoserepresenting a seat where the party changed were noticeably more local (71%) thanwhere the seat was inherited by an MP of the same party (56%). By comparison, only40% of re-elected MPs were local. Of MPs leaving Parliament in 2015, 55% were local;with figures of 46% for those retiring and 66% for those defeated. The same generalpattern holds true for both 2017 and 2019. In all three elections, new MPs who took aseat from a rival party were around 70% or more local.Table 2: MPs with regional connections, by entry and exit to parliament, 2015-2019Table 3 shows the decades of birth of MPs and the extent to which they are local. Foreach of the older (pre-1970) age groups, the percentages of local MPs were broadlysimilar up to 2017; generally, in the low 40s. Roughly half of MPs born in the 1970s werelocal. However, between 62% and 73% of MPs born in the 1980s and 1990s were local.The ongoing replacement of older, less local MPs with younger, more local MPs has hadthe greatest impact on the overall situation. For example, there were 102 (16%) MPsPage 3 of 6Permalink: undefinedDate originally posted: undefinedDate PDF generated: 14/11/2022born in the 1930s and 1940s in 2010 but only 21 (3%) in 2019, which compares with 16(2%) MPs born in the 1980s and 1990s in 2010 and 138 (21%) in 2019. Consequently,as older MPs leave the Commons, there should be further increases in the percentage ofMPs who are local.Table 3: MPs with regional connections, by date of birth, 2015-2019Figure 1 shows the geographical differences for each of the four elections. The x-axis isthe percentage of MPs in that region who were born within the region (i.e. thepercentage of MPs in each region that are local). The y-axis shows the percentage ofMPs born in a region who have a constituency in that region. A ‘self-sufficient’ regionwould have co-ordinates (100, 100); all MPs with constituencies in a region were born inthat region, and no-one from that region represents a constituency outside the region.So, the nearer to the top right-hand corner, the more self-sufficient a region is. Scotland(93,71) and Northern Ireland (94,65) were the best examples in 2019.Conversely, the nearer a region is to the bottom left-hand corner the more politicianmobility is taking place; people from outside the region represent constituencies andnatives leave their region of birth for other seats. London (45,32) and East of England(21,44) were the best examples in 2019. Regions below the 45° diagonal have moreMPs born in them than there are constituencies, with the reverse the case for regionsabove the 45° diagonal. For illustration, in 2019 Londoners only represented 33 (45%) ofthe 73 London seats, whilst there were 70 (68%) elected to constituencies outside thecapital. Over the decade, the changes in these geographical differences were mostlyrelatively minor, although (in line with the overall increase in local MPs) most regionssaw their percentage of local MPs rise.Page 4 of 6Permalink: undefinedDate originally posted: undefinedDate PDF generated: 14/11/2022Figure 1: The regional mobility of MPs, 2010-2019ConclusionsRelatively few seats change hands at each general election, even in an era of politicalturmoil: 281 constituencies (43%) were represented by the same MP in 2010 and 2019,and only 39% of these were ‘local’, as defined in this research. This compares to 61% forother MPs elected in 2019. There are clear partisan differences and a centre-peripherydivide, but no overall gender divide. The trend towards increased (region-based)localism should continue on an evolutionary basis in coming elections as longstandingMPs retire or are defeated, to be replaced by younger, more local politicians.Page 5 of 6Permalink: undefinedDate originally posted: undefinedDate PDF generated: 14/11/2022This article is based on the authors’ work published in The Journal of LegislativeStudies.___________________About the AuthorsRobert J. Gandy is a Visiting Professor with Liverpool Business School,Liverpool John Moores University. Philip Cowley is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London.  Scott Foster is the PhD Programme Leader at Liverpool John MooresUniversity, Liverpool Business School.  Featured image credit: Photo by Olivier Collet on UnsplashPage 6 of 6Permalink: undefinedDate originally posted: undefinedDate PDF generated: 14/11/2022

Trends in region-based localism among MPs: 2010-2019

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Trends in region-based localism among MPs: 2010-2019

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