Exchange Rate Pass-through pada Harga Impor: Studi Kasus Indonesia, Thailand, dan Singapura

Abstract

This research paper is aimed to analyze the exchange rate pass-through in three SouthEast Asian Countries namely Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. By employing timeseries model with quarterly data in the period of 1990-2000, it is found that in the longrun in those three cases, the exchange rate pass-through toward import prices prevails.It is shown that there is a positive relationship between the indexes of import price andthe relative value of local currency toward US Dollar as predicted by the theory. However,in the short run, there is a difference in the context of response of indexes of importprice to movement in exchange rates. In the case of Indonesia and Thailand, the shortrun estimates show the existence of incomplete pass-through, whereas in the case ofSingapore, the estimates figures show that there is no significant evidence of pass-through. This finding might be due to the ability of domestic economy in findingsubstitutes when there is a depreciation of domestic currency, vice versa. Moreover, thedemand pressure in local market and marginal cost, especially with concern totransportation cost, faced by industry also could be other factors that influence theexistence of exchange rate pass-through.Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate, import price, inflation