Grey Double Exponential Smoothing Dengan Optimasi Levenberg-marquardt Untuk Peramalan Volume Penumpang Di Bandara Soekarno-hatta

Abstract

Aircraft ha became the best choice for long distance traveling because it has shortest traveltime than any other transportations. Moreover, in recent years, aviation industries havecompeted for providing low cost flight so that it can also be enjoyed by middle class society.Thus escalate the popularity of aircraft as economical carrier. Knowing the volume ofpassengers in advance will help government and related institutions to effectively providingfacilities. The volume of passengers can be predicted using classic model such as doubleexponential smoothing model which is simpler and has high accuracy. However, therandomness of Indonesian passenger volume data cause double exponential smoothing (DES)cannot follow both data pattern and data trend. Moreover, classic model often encountersoverfitting where the prediction is bigger than the actual data. Therefore, we employed GreyMethod applied on DES (GDES) to overcome this problem. GDES enabled the researcher toperform better data fitting because it would generate smoothing curve which showed clearertrend. As the result, although GDES fitting curve had higher error measurement (MSE) thanDES, the forecasting result of GDES was more precise than DES